Scratchin Mamba

4y

The invasion doesn't deem to be a popular move in Russia based on what I'm seeing, I wonder what this will mean for Putin's grip on power in Russia.

The last time they started such a highly unpopular invasion that devastated their economy it contributed to the end of the USSR.

Scratchin Mamba

4y

@WRU @Replica how is the reaction to this in Russia from what you've seen personally?

WRU

4y

· edited

I wonder what this will mean for Putin's grip on power in Russia.

this is me doomposting but probably nothing? earlier I would think there's a tiny chance of things maybe not escalating into a full-fledged invasion, but since I woke up to the news of Kyiv being bombed I don't believe that anymore. surely wont affect the next 20 years of his reign in any meaningful capacity

reaction-wise my takeaway is that a lot of people in russia straight up don't care for the invasion and lives lost because it all affects their bottom line. people are afraid of losing what little they have rather than empathizing with their 'brothers' on the other side. all part of the plan of course; gotta get those support stats one way or another

thats also another reason why sanctions won't work: it's poor people who pay the most at the end of the day, and when your economy is crippled as is it'll only enable scum corporations, more poverty, debt, and further political detachment over making it a punishment for a few super rich people

WRU

4y

· edited

I wonder what this will mean for Putin's grip on power in Russia.

this is me doomposting but probably nothing? earlier I would think there's a tiny chance of things maybe not escalating into a full-fledged invasion, but since I woke up to the news of Kyiv being bombed I don't believe that anymore. surely wont affect the next 20 years of his reign in any meaningful capacity

reaction-wise my takeaway is that a lot of people in russia straight up don't care for the invasion and lives lost because it all affects their bottom line. people are afraid of losing what little they have rather than empathizing with their 'brothers' on the other side. all part of the plan of course; gotta get those support stats one way or another

thats also another reason why sanctions won't work: it's poor people who pay the most at the end of the day, and when your economy is crippled as is it'll only enable scum corporations, more poverty, debt, and further political detachment over making it a punishment for a few super rich people

WRU

4y

all that except young people who are now full-time guilt tripping themselves over something they have zero control over. some generational trauma s*** is definitely happening here in real time

WRU

4y

all that except young people who are now full-time guilt tripping themselves over something they have zero control over. some generational trauma s*** is definitely happening here in real time

Scratchin Mamba

4y

Do you think there's any chance that the elites in Russia may not support this move because of the economic that it'll have and that maybe this could impact his grip on power?

And when you say people are worried about their bottom line, do you mean that they oppose the war because it'll afffect them financially due to the sanctions? Or that there isn't much resistance anyway? I've seen a lot of protests, but I guess that could also just be Western media bias.

And yeah.. the sanctions really won't work, if anything it gives Putin a scapegoat.

Kako

4y

Oh s*** Ukraine is truly f***ed now

TragedyBerlusconi

4y

I think in the long run this is going to produce entire future generations of Ukrainians who will grow up despising Russia

Ukrainian national identity will now be solidly and permanently anti Russian, meaning at some point it will break free of this yolk

WRU

4y

bro my own relatives from Ukraine are kinda cold-shouldering me, even now they do and we're in a group chat right now! they are not young at all. won't go into details but some of the tightest bonds within my family are irreparable because of it. and what's worse is that they have every right for it because I as a Russian citizen get the longer end of the stick anyhow. end of the day war is never at my doorstep

krishna bound

4y

I don't necessarily think Azerbaijan will join NATO or anything but I do think it's worrying Iran is now talking about joining forces with Russia to resist NATO expansion (whether or not it's just talk or not, let's see, probably is). While I don't honestly worry about Iran, I worry about a country like Israel which fanatically wants to go to war with iran by any means possible using this as an excuse to provoke a situation; moreso because of the Israel-Azerbaijan military relationship and the fact Azerbaijan is sandwiched between Iran, Armenia, and Russia. I don't really worry about Turkey themselves, I don't think they're going to go full Ottoman or anything, but I do think their geopolitical location and being in NATO brings up questions of if Russia wants to control as much NATO border as possible what they will do with Georgia, and with Armenia being a Russian proxy (well not really but at least someone closer to Russia's sphere of influence), I think that's a valid question. Georgia will definitely remain western-centric but I think they really are going to have to think a lot about their next move. If someone like Finland joins NATO, I really think given the Ossetia situation Georgia would consider it, which is really dangerous.
For other campaigns, I really would love to say I know the answer but I can really only guess and i think it's up in the air. I don't really think China/Taiwan is as much of a given as people think tbh. Personally I think China cares too much about fostering their current upward growth and maintaining their burgeoning capitalist class to be pursuing things which could disrupt international influence and economics. However at the same time China & Western economies are virtually symbiotic and neither can pull away from each other w/o completely stunting their individual economic trajectories, so who knows if they'd call the bluff; I'd still lean on probably not. To be honest I don't think China actually thought Russia would invade.

they only just now are pulling evacuations while every other country in the world did in advance. I think they genuinely may have thought Russia was bluffing and that's why they defended them initially.

WRU

4y

all that except young people who are now full-time guilt tripping themselves over something they have zero control over. some generational trauma s*** is definitely happening here in real time

spongebob

4y

oh they playing the money game for REAL

according to... one tweet? need more sources

spongebob

4y

oh they playing the money game for REAL

according to... one tweet? need more sources