Young D

5mo

Feel like these three things will provide the best indicator for which way the race will go over the next 3 days:

1) Ann Selzer’s final Iowa poll — if it shows better numbers for Harris than Biden had in Iowa that bodes well for her in the rust belt swing states, if it is worse then that is bad news

2) NYTs final polls — by far the best pollster at not doing that herding BS, so it will be interesting to see what their final swing state polls say

3) Jon Ralston’s blog on Nevada’s early vote numbers — hasn’t been great for Harris so far there, but he said to keep an eye for if there is a late surge by Monday (he’s been saying they need to cut the GOP lead down to 20k)

allmygirlsdoyoga

4mo

No chance

Young D

4mo

I’m absolutely brine @ this first one

I thought if it showed Trump only having a +5 lead that would be very bad news for him (since he beat Biden by 8+ in Iowa in 2020, and Clinton by even more in 2016)

Harris up +3 from the best pollster this century though

Obviously this is an outlier (she doesn’t herd, so these are the numbers she got). But this is still horrible news for Trump. If his team isn’t having s*** hit the fan right now, I’d be amazed

Everest

4mo

Their cope-polls are +5 would be a rough ceiling if that’s as good as it gets for them

Is it worth sending Obama to Iowa? They’ve understandably neglected the state for the entire campaign but might as well send the guy they nominated twice to go do a little event and keep momentum going considering what’s happened by itself, with very little focus

Himothee

4mo

This is really interesting.

Lowkey think the media has been focusing on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, NC too much. Other states like Iowa may actually be in play that the campaigns haven’t considered.

Tuesday night gonna have some shock twists I feel like

Young D

4mo

I’m absolutely brine @ this first one

I thought if it showed Trump only having a +5 lead that would be very bad news for him (since he beat Biden by 8+ in Iowa in 2020, and Clinton by even more in 2016)

Harris up +3 from the best pollster this century though

Obviously this is an outlier (she doesn’t herd, so these are the numbers she got). But this is still horrible news for Trump. If his team isn’t having s*** hit the fan right now, I’d be amazed

Himothee

4mo

“I’m giving you the full bore” ay f***ing yo

Young D

4mo

Yeah could definitely be a situation if she doesn’t win where we look back at it and see it as a big mistake that she spent so much time in Arizona and Georgia if she comes closer in Iowa (but ultimately loses it)

I think at this point it’s too little too late to try to fight there though

Snowboy

4mo

the real danger to the palestine movement if trump wins is going to be sympathetic liberals abandoning it for the useless "anti-trump" movement which is certainly coming if he clinches

also its not like biden didn't deport a bunch of people already for purely political reasons (coughHaitianscough).

I wouldn't be worried about citizens getting deported, its actually absurdly difficult to do and its not like they're gonna kidnap you in the middle of the night and drop you off in Guadalajara.

Big Tobacco

4mo

You are such an antisocial weirdo man

WINTER

4mo

I watched trumps speech right now in greensboro north carolina and watched kamalas earlier today in charolette and trump has a way better speech kamal read of a prepared thing for about 25 mins and donald went 1 hour or so mostly impromptu weaving and was more entertaining