gabapentin

2y

As is vaguely well-known, the "Value Them Both" amendment was put on the primary election ballot instead of the general election ballot in November because primary elections, particularly in red states and particularly in states with closed or semi-closed primaries where you have to affiliate with one of the parties in order to vote in a primary, have low turnout (and midterms historically lean Republican to boot)

https://politicalcharge.org/2022/07/27/republican-dirty-tricks-on-the-primary-ballot/

(also worth noting is that the amendment was first introduced in January 2020 and put on the August 2, 2022 ballot in January 2021, so it wasn't explicitly drafted with the knowledge that Dobbs would have overturned Roe by the time Kansans voted on it -- and thus that the effects of a "Yes" vote could potentially be so drastic -- but the writing has been on the wall, particularly in the "pro-life" scene, since Ginsburg died in 2020, and certainly by Tuesday the functional dichotomy has become clear)

https://kansasreflector.com/2021/01/22/kansas-house-votes-abortion-amendment-statewide-ballot/

of course, turnout was incredibly high, with many "unaffiliated voters" showing up just to vote on the amendment (and with 80,000 more Republican primary voters than "yes" voters to boot), so this strategy to sneak it by voters failed

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/02/us/elections/results-kansas.html

But Republicans were still (perhaps even intentionally) smart to have this referendum during the primary election, because now the referendum won't be on the ballot in November, where a large number of those who only showed up to vote in the referendum would have been able to also vote AGAINST the Republican candidate at the same time

And indeed, the failure of the amendment has to a large extent re-removed the abortion issue from the ambit of Kansas elections this fall, since while pro-life Republicans are like Team Rocket, always blasting off again at the end of the episode but never blasting off for good, the popular referendum affirming the Kansas Supreme Court's 2019 decision that the state constitution requires any state abortion restrictions to pass strict scrutiny (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strict_scrutiny) means that at this moment in time, the Kansas Legislature is as prevented as perhaps they ever will be from restricting abortion access in Kansas

whereas if the low-turnout strategy to pass the amendment had succeeded, the next three months would have been nonstop messaging telling Kansans to vote Democrat to protect abortion since the Republican-dominated legislature are newly empowered to pass any abortion restrictions/bans that they want to (and no one genuinely doubts that they very much do want to)

tl; dr, republicans semi-saved from their own worst instincts and stupidest beliefs again

the reds

2y

Tldr

Young D

2y

I was thinking the same thing the other day. Are there any other states with a similar referendum on the ballot in the Fall?

krishna bound

2y

the best part about republican ideology is that it's so incredibly stupid that it recursively enables itself to continue texisting

gabapentin

2y

Kentucky has theirs in the November general election

I was spaz— NERDING out to my brother abt the similarities and differences between that situation and this one

Both solid red states in federal elections with Democrat governors, but many contextual differences

Kansas is relatively socially liberal for a red state (RIP the homie Tiller and shoutout to Kitty Sibelius) so I think Kentucky will have some amount of higher support for such an anti-choice referendum in a vacuum

It’s a little different tho, bc in Kansas the SC already ruled that the state constitution protected the right to an abortion, whereas this is a preemptive strike by the Kentucky legislature to prevent their SC from ever doing some good old fashioned JUDICIAL ACTIVISM

KY has a seven member Supreme Court with elected officials and they’re not necessarily Fed Soc clones

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/2019/08/22/kentucky-supreme-court-too-liberal-conservatives-must-fix/2066884001/

In 2019, the "Scalia fan" lost in District 1, but in 2020 the "Christian conservative" won in District 7

https://www.kentuckynewera.com/news/article_7b359aca-d0e8-5a62-a4c2-20b26598678a.html

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/kentucky/2020/11/04/kentucky-supreme-court-robert-conley-defeats-chris-harris-election/6075946002/

(interestingly, as you see, District 1 is on the left side of KY and District 7 is over near some of the few counties that voted for Dem Governor Beshear in 2019, so go figure)

KY legislature passed a veto proof abortion ban but there’s a lawsuit that will presumably finally be ruled on by the KY SC

https://www.wkyt.com/2022/08/03/aclu-planned-parenthood-file-appeal-ky-supreme-court-block-abortion-bans/

if the KY SC gives a ruling that protects abortion before November, then that will be what the referendum would overturn (it will be anticlimactic if they say the ban is aight, i suppose)

What is interesting to me is that November might actually be a good tactic for Kentucky's FORCED BIRTHERS, since while Kentucky sometimes still goes donkey on the local level, the federal midterm election will indeed be a RED WAVE

So they're basically banking on the federal election boost offsetting the Dobbs effect (since if this was a traditionally low-turnout election, like a midterm primary or an off-year like 2019, that would actually benefit the DEMOCRATS in Kentucky)

Of course, it's also ostensibly possible for people to vote for Rand Paul and their Republican Congresscritter in November yet also to protect abortion rights (at least 80,000 Kansas Republican primary voters apparently did not vote for the "VALUE THEM BOTH" amendment; I guess they valued both their team winning and the ability for women to access abortion)

OH ALSO, there are four kentucky supreme court elections on the ballot in November, meaning that if there is a PRO-CHOICE WAVE and all those seats end up being filled with the more liberal judges, the GOP might have doubly f***ed themselves

TL;DR Kentucky has a nearly-identical referendum on the ballot in the November midterm general election, and I can't predict if the pro-choice turnout wave will overwhelm the GOP voter federal election turnout; Pro-Life Gang are making a risky play