Simple fix

Artist x did

100k - streaming
50k - physcials copies (single)
100k - physical copies (bulk)

To just not count an actual sale because it’s in bulk but count playing 45 secs of a song and skipping to the next song is crazy to me

He not gunna outsell Damn first week without a single

aside from the new billboard rule, is it actually proven how much this has effected charts before or is it just speculation?

If somebody sold physicals like Adele and got streams like Drake, they’d be at 1.2 million

DAMN got 340 million streams first week. At that time the biggest first week stream number was held by Drake with More Life at 385 million. Drake still holds the record as far I know, with CLB getting 744 million.

Streaming has blown up since DAMN. I think 600 million streams is pretty attainable for Kendrick. Possibly more given the long absence. That would give him 400k right there.

His other albums still well on physicals, with GKMC being the highest selling rap album on vinyl (and vinyl sales have become the largest physical seller for a lot of artists).

So I think 500k is attainable. I don’t think 1 million is attainable.

Cole did 288K with The Off-Season.

I think right around 500k is a good number. I think it'll beat CLB for streams per track because it'll almost certainly have less tracks. CLB did 35 million per track. 38 million streams per track with 15 songs equals 430k. Then I think he'll probably do around 70k pure because his fanbase buys music. So 500k

there’s a music charts thread

the only way kendrick does alot is if he has a long album. I dont think kendrick will do more than 14 tracks. So it will have an effect on album sales imo

I love how you're saying EASILY lol. It won't be easy for Kendrick to pull 400K units. It really all depends on the amount of units he's able to pull with pure sales. I can see 350-450M streams, that's about 260-335K units. The rest will be pure sales. Drake did 46K in pure sales with CLB and Cole did 37K in pure sales with TOS, so that should give you an idea of what Kendrick will do in pure sales.

Cole did 350M US streams with 12 tracks. With 16 tracks, Kendrick should manage 420-450M US streams.

Even if he drops 20 singles between now and May 13, he's not outdoing DAMN's first week numbers.

With 12 tracks that’s crazy

The Off Seasons stream per song were close to Scorpions. Imagine if Cole released a 20 song album.

It's worth noting that More Life did 385M streams in 5 days out of the tracking week. With 7 days, it would have easily done about 450M streams.

Would have probably done around 500-550M US streams.

That’s still only 300k lol. That s*** isn’t happening. He might not even have 16 songs.

Yeah, the less songs his album has, the less streams it'll pull. He doesn't have pure sales this time around to boost his numbers. For reference, DAMN did 353K in pure sales in it's first week. The new album might not even do 70K pure sales in it's first week.

Bring back bundles s*** was way more fun

Do you think it’s fair to be comparing 10-12 track album sales to 20-25 track album sales?

It’s like 2 different leagues

I thought streaming has blown up since DAMN...

I’m saying easily because he will EASILY pull 400K. I don’t know why you’re comparing Cole to Kendrick because 1) Kendrick is much bigger than Cole, and 2) this is a highly anticipated album from an artist that hasn’t dropped solo music in 5 years, The Off Season had neither of those advantages going for it.

Kendrick’s easily doing at least 400K. Depending on how big of a single he has, and also if he has merch/physicals ready to ship first week, he can reach 500-550K.

Merch/physicals are out of the picture.

Not unless they ship first week.

It has but not in the way you think.

Actually tho.

You're telling me I can get merch for $20 just so an artist I like can have bigger numbers? Sign me up