The fall off

650k

No shot. His streams would have to be astronomical for that to happen.

His ceiling is probably 400K right now

Man I like your optimism but you need to stop with that

Drake's commercial prime was 2018, it's not surprising to see him on a consistent commercial decline in the 2020s. That said, and especially when contrasted to the mediocrity of this record, 411k first week on this album is a big success lol

Interested to see if he will break his streaming debut from last year

Very interested to see how stable it will be

I said that’s his ceiling, meaning that’s the most he’ll possibly do right now if there’s a massive song or two that pops off or if the entire album remains ridiculously stable over the next week, but that’s absolute best case scenario.

I’m predicting somewhere between 300K-325K

Yeah I would be surprised if he does more than 250k with this kind of album

drake selling less than Travis Scott in 2023?

Really? I think his last album established him as a household name in America and he’s undoubtedly bigger right now than he was a year ago the day Un Verano Sin Ti dropped

Seems like his Global Spotify numbers are gonna be lower than Un Verano Sun Ti, which leads me to believe his US numbers will be lower also

Source on that? He just broke the 2023 record for the biggest opening day Spotify streams so far this year

You are right in general but this album is less mainstream than UVST, he said he wanted to give his day 1 fans something. I guess he will go fully mainstream with raggaeton next year with US features

The first day tracking for Spotify charts ended already, so if he broke the Un Verano Sin Ti record I’m sure that they would have announced that also and not just the 2023 one

Spotify already said the numbers are challenging UVST

“With a few hours still remaining in the chart day, Bad Bunny's nadie sabe lo que va a pasar mañana (Rimas) is tracking, at several global providers, to first-day streams equal to or greater than those of his previous release, Un Verano Sin Ti. That set opened at #1 with 274k in total activity in May of last year. Un Verano went on to become the biggest album of 2022, with 3.4m in activity.”

via HitsDD

To compare..

Utopia got 128 million first day streams

Un Verano Sin Ti 145 million

His new album will probably debut with 150+ mil

MONACO is hard

I hope Bad Bunny's album blows everything outta the water. Been amazing watching his career just as a fan.

I wrote about this commercial moment years ago.

The moment when Drake's successor would finally pull past him.

Travis and Benito were a part of my predictions.

medium.com/modern-music-analysis/who-will-be-drakes-successor-fb8112f233fd?sk=cad32af14e93b61301b237de01152ec7

Bad Bunny isn't a truly experimental artist sabotaging his career until he makes a dance album like Drake

Ken Carson: 70K

Well travis is still a good chunk behind and I think he’s hit his commercial peak. And Bad bunny isn’t a rapper and makes a completely different genre. So didn’t happen yet