C3 was the bigger album. No denying that.

Graduation, however, is showing much stronger longevity than C3 on the charts and streaming.

So, over time, Grad might outpace C3. Who knows though? Maybe C6 will make people stream C3 more and it'll balance out.

I’ll say between 130K and 150K

The rollout and marketing was pretty abysmal, could’ve been higher with a better promotion strategy

Under 200K is an underperformance for a guy who’s never done above 175?

Except Taylor sold that much from a non-official album.

Let's wait until she drops another actual album like Midnights(which is already on track to go Diamond in a few years) before we call it curtains for her.

Also, Drake has crossed over to White America(especially suburban White women) more than any other rapper in history not named Eminem so let's not play that game.

The fact that they act like this isn’t the case is crazy. White America absolutely loves Drake

Radio + streaming.

Exactly.

Eminem, Drake, and then Kanye arguably have the most crossover appeal to White America musically speaking. They have the most claimed sales and singles sales of any rapper. You don't get that far without White support lol.

I think Drake fans exaggerate how much love he gets in "the streets." He gets listened to very passively from my experience as someone who just moved from a "street" environment. There's a gang of other rappers(incluing those I'm not fond of) who have more fans and get more spins on the regular than Drake.

I remember when AK interviewed 21 a few years ago and 21 told him that people in Atlanta and the South listen to Future more than Drake. And AK got mad and started bringing up Drake's sales and streams to "prove" that 21 was wrong but 21 still maintained his position.

Drake probably has the most White female support of any rapper. That alone will take you far in the numbers department. And Taylor Swift has the biggest support from that demographic of them all so connect the dots.

i think 200 is a lil high as a base line for 21, i know he coming off mad hype with infinite drake features and collab and s*** but if 21 did 200k that would be a big dubb for him

not many features on the album either, we'll have to see, im thinking 140k-160k tho

The 35 tracks part should've told you it's a troll post lmao

Drake has more white America appeal/fans than any other rapper, but Taylor still has like 5x his appeal and fans in the white population (especially with white WOMEN).

Drake exceeding more than other black rappers doesn't mean he still doesn't face a same ceiling/reach as a black rapper.

A 45 year old white soccer mom in Utah is not about to listen to a new Drake album. They will eat up Taylor/Morgan tho lol.

And this decade Drake has basically ditched a lot of his Pop-crossover appeal with this music he been putting out (aside from the quality). CLB, Her Loss, and FATD have like 0 songs that would have the Pop-appeal of a One Dance / Hold On We're Going Home or whatnot. He basically (attempting) to go down the Jay-Z mid 2000s route lately with this monotone/weak hook music where he's moreso just focusing on the bars to prove himself.

The white ppl that was on a Drake bandwagon "and don't really like Hip-Hop but like him" are disappearing at this point tbh and the music he puts out these days is entirely not attractive to them.

Morgan Wallen back at #1 almost a year after his album dropped

Nothing high about it. 21 Savage went from doing 131k with I Am > I Was back in 2018 to doing 171k with Savage Mode 2 in 2020 (in the year the pandemic hit). And all of that was without the massive stride he did right after with the numerous Drake collabs/hits and coming off the biggest tour of his career. If he can't manage 200k now, when his hype is the highest it's ever been, when will he do it?

Y'all keep setting the bar mad low for these niggas, man.

21 doing 200k solo would establish him as one of the biggest rappers on the planet

DS4 did 150k

Pink Tape did 167k

Heroes and Villains did 185k

I Never Liked You did 222k

Seems to me like 150-170k or around there would be a reasonable expectation for a solo 21 album.

I agree that Drake put out less crossover hits but he still has more mass appeal than most if not all rappers today.

He's still one of the go to rappers that White women(an untapped demo for many male rappers) listen to and many young White dudes will bump him too.

That said, I will say that a lot of the 35+ White demo still d***rides Shady more than most rappers to this day.

Sales have been down across the board for the past year. The biggest rapper in the world just sold 100K under his usual amount first week.

Under normal circumstances, it would make sense for 21 to be expected to go from 171 to 200. But in the state of the industry in this current moment, at a time where the charts are weaker than ever, a prediction of 130-160K is much more realistic for him

None of the artists who made those albums you listed just scored multiple hits with Drake and built upon their hype with each passing year since their last project like 21 Savage did. I Am > I Was, Savage Mode 2 and Her Loss were all well-received projects that performed well commercially.

21 has scored more hits since 2018 than all those names mentioned. He just finished the biggest tour of his career with the biggest name in rap and he managed that with an impressive feature run that not only sustained his hype but increased it. If all of that doesn't translate to at least a 200k debut week then I don't know.

I don’t like when y’all use soccer moms as the baseline man, soccer moms are not the ones streaming this music all day and every day. It’s people under 30 years old. All we’re saying is that Drake appeals to every demographic of streaming audience, which is why his streaming numbers are ridiculously high.

Most people didn’t even know that this album was releasing. And for the people who did, some were confused about if it was an actual album or a soundtrack for a film.

Also the charts are weaker than ever at this moment in time. That combined with a poorly handled rollout + no real promotion, and you’re setting him up for failure expecting a debut of 200K+

You keep saying WITH Drake, but this is a solo 21 album. SM2 was not a solo album; Metro sells well in his own right. The last 21 solo album did 130k.

I would be shocked if he jumped from 130k as a solo artist five years ago to 200k when sales are down across the board, but I've been wrong before.

Not even just the chart s*** though, I think this album won’t sell crazy simply because the marketing strategy was really head scratching and unclear

I think ppl really undermine just how much Drake distanced himself from being a topic on white America’s mind after #Dramahovmeekgate in 2015. Hiphop fans overrate it as an underhanded “Drake is for white people” thing but Drake is despised by white people this day and age ESPECIALLY white women.

The only white Americans that really love Drake in 2024 are those that are already fully into this s*** or just listen to playlists. In My Feelings/Sicko Mode was the very last hoorah for all that white america loves Drake stuff

He’s def amongst the most loved rappers by white people tho

This ain’t true at all man, white people don’t despise Drake

The 30+ demo is actually a huge part of streaming now. That’s why old classics are so huge these days and why Graduation, Take Care, Good Kid, 2014 Forest, etc stay charting forever. 14 year olds born in 2010 who have zero recollection of these albums are not the main ones streaming them if you couldn’t put two and two together.

Taylor makes music friendly enough for white moms to play in a car ride with their 2 kids, as well as continues to put out music that currently appeals to a white woman in that life stage. (And well, she is a white woman over 30+… no brainer she appeals to them in a special way Drake never will match)

You’re delusional if you think a 30+ year old white woman gonna go harder for Rich Baby Daddy over Taylor’s Barnes & Noble & Starbucks Autumn playlist appealing music