if this doesn’t clear Dawn FM streaming numbers he’s done

It means they need to delete them "my prediction was close" posts

You just spoke about release strategy. CLB and Scorpion had similar streams. Each did about 750M US streams and CLB didn't have any major hits and had 4 less songs than Scorpion.

Why CLB didn't debut with 700k+ units was because digital sales completely died off from 2018 till 2021. So, yes, his release strategy didn't change but that particular condition changed and affected it.

For All the Dogs had about half of its songs as straight R&B songs and I've already said that those songs historically perform the worst for Drake on his albums. His fans always stick to supporting the rap songs the most on an album. You can go back and check how the R&B songs off Scorpion, CLB and For All the Dogs performed on the charts relative to the rap songs and their placements on the album. If the album had more rap songs or at least more melodic rap songs like Her Loss did, it'd have performed better.

If he makes another Her Loss type album with 20+ songs, I think he could hit 650M+ US streams again.

But as for his next album with PARTYNEXTDOOR, if it's a straight-up R&B album, regardless of how good it ends up being, it won't be a commercial behemoth because most people are waiting to hear Drake rap again and address everything that's happened since 2024.

people are incredibly delusional.

How come you’re okay with Drake getting all of those excuses but if someone brings some context to predicting Weeknd’s numbers then it’s not allowed?

You yourself said this album doesn’t seem to have many standout singles that would fare well with the GP. How would that not affect the first week numbers?

People are being FORCED to listen to his old music 🤣🤣

"he's done"

it's his last album anyway with The Weeknd

It definitely will. After Hours and Dawn debuted with the exact same first day streams, the only reason one finished with 220M and the other with 170M was word of mouth. People loved After Hours, but did not love Dawn FM.

Most people are loving HUT as of right now, I think the first week stream numbers will be somewhere between Dawn and After Hours, maybe settling around 200M flat or like 210M

Also this, like either way he’s “done” as The Weeknd

"he's done" while One Of The Girls still getting around 3 million streams daily

He's doing more than fine, he had so many hits in the last years without "crazy" effort

Yeah he’s fine lmao

This album will 100% score another 3-4 songs with a billion streams for him

They're not excuses.

That's why I'm focused on its debut week numbers, not how it'll perform 6 months from now. With it having 22 songs, multiple physical variants and box sets, as well as being promoted as his last album as the Weeknd, all those things should factor into a strong debut week and a good headstart. That's always been my point.

How would 300-350K not be a strong debut? 400K+ is literally his peak.

It’s like expecting a Drake retirement album to clear a million first week since that’s what his peak is

I'm not the only who was projecting less than 300k units despite it having physical while Dawn FM didn't. That was you.

I literally said 340K yesterday

What did you say initially?

250-300K. That was before we learned how long the album was and if people would enjoy it or not.

If it was a 13 track album that people disliked, obviously it would perform worse than a 22 track album that people heavily enjoy.

That’s exactly why Honestly, Nevermind only sold 200K. It was a 13 track dance album that everyone hated

This is cope. You knew it wouldn't be a 13-track album because in the album thread, y'all were listing off countless songs he'd already previewed and were making predictions on how many songs would make the album. No one in there expected a short album for his last album as the Weeknd.

Also, he had already released and sold out multiple physical variants and box sets, so he had a solid headstart on the physicals front (something he didn't have with Dawn FM), so either way, the album was always going to perform at least twice as well as Dawn FM did in its debut week.

Yes twice as well as Dawn FM would basically be 250-300K

Again: according to you, 300-350k is a "solid debut" but 400k is unrealistic and insanity

And according to you, 350K would be a flop but 400K would be commendable

I said if it did less than 400k, it'd be an underperformance. I didn't use the word "flop." And I listed off all the reasons why I thought that. All logical reasons.

Aren't you the same person who said Drake doing 400k with For All the Dogs was an underperformance, despite that being his third album in a 16-month span? 🤔

The shambles because the weeknd underperforming is always hilarious 😂😂😂😂😂😂 keep spiraling. Drake will always be the bigger artist.

Can’t even argue with that user. Had to block him. He legit doesn’t make sense lmao. Decided to stop wasting my time.

I had him blocked earlier but unblocked him to say something and it's been longer than I thought.