Unity

6y

Look bro, I get all of that. I'm not trying to sit here and act like Smith is a bad player. My point is that he has a lot of things working against him, and that he would need to be a major outlier to not only put up multiple WR1 seasons, but to have a better career than Chase.

Now that regular season statistics are finalized, let's take a look at at the 30 most productive wide receivers this season.

Suppose Smith stays at his current weight, 179, after he gets drafted (highly unlikely.) Of the top 30 WRs based on statistical production this season, here are the ones 180 pounds or lighter: Jamison Crowder (#26). That's 1 out of the top 30 WRs that matches his build.

Let's say Smith gains 6 pounds, which is good for a WR, and by the time his first NFL game comes around he's 185 pounds. Of the top 30 WRs based on statistical production this season, here are the ones 185 pounds or lighter: Tyreek Hill (#2), Will Fuller (#7), Tyler Lockett (#12), Brandin Cooks (#17), Diontae Johnson (#20). Bigger group, sure, but still only 5 of the top 30 receivers who match his potential build.

I'm not even going to get into Marquise Brown gaining 23 pounds because not only is it incredibly uncommon, he still only weighs 174 pounds and likely won't keep all of that weight on for the rest of his career.

The other major knock against Smith, at least when it comes to comparing him to Chase, is breakout age. I'm not going to deny that Smith had a great senior year, but the key words there are "senior year." The number of WRs who "hit" (produce multiple WR1 seasons in the league) who aren't early declares is much lower than those who do. Those are just the numbers. And that's draft age, which is relatively unimportant compared to breakout age. Chase's breakout age was 19, Smith's was 20.8. The breakout age you typically see on average for "hits" at WR is 20 flat. Anything under that is really good, anything over that is a red flag. Smith could have declared last year and we wouldn't even be having this discussion. I understand that it was a personal decision, and I do recognize that it raised his draft stock significantly (props to him for that,) but as far as his value as a long-term asset at WR goes, it dropped because he's putting up these crazy numbers in CFB while his peers are in the NFL producing. What do we think Justin Jefferson's numbers would have been in CFB this year if he had stayed?

Aside from putting up gaudy numbers with Waddle out (Waddle was on pace to outproduce him from a pure numbers standpoint when healthy,) Smith is the exact same player as he was last year. His game is exactly the same. He's not overly fast for his size, but he wins with crafty routes, strength at the catch point, and incredible footwork. The route running and the footwork can transfer to the NFL, but there's a big difference in winning contested catches vs. 18 and 19 year old kids and NFL CBs. My worry is that his slight frame will prevent him from excelling at what I believe to be one of his biggest areas of domination in the college game. I don't have those same concerns with Chase.

I think that we have a clear and obvious #1 WR staring us in the face in Ja'Marr Chase, and having a conversation about putting anyone next to him or beside him is simply ridiculous.

If you're looking at identical statistical production from a 210 pound 19 year old vs a 179 pound 22 year old and you say "give me the 22 year old," I simply can't help you.

Holographic

5y

Y’all don’t have the best coverage LB itl on your team? LMAOOOO

Unity

5y

@Thebigbelts

Holographic

5y

Y’all don’t have the best coverage LB itl on your team? LMAOOOO

Thebigbelts

5y

This waaay too much to read

Thebigbelts

5y

This waaay too much to read

Holographic

5y

Y’all don’t have the best coverage LB itl on your team? LMAOOOO

Unity

5y

We don't either

bigmancam

5y

we got the best defensive tackle selected past the 4th round on our team!

CLB Harry Cox

5y

Feels good havin the best rookie corner!

Holographic

5y

Y’all don’t have the best coverage LB itl on your team? LMAOOOO

ovocrew

5y

Sure feels great having the best corner on your team

bigmancam

5y

@Dreezy

its more racist to assume non PoC can't have 2 letter last names! shame on them!

ovocrew

5y

Sure feels great having the best corner on your team

Maga Law

5y

And it got you the 4th pick in 2021

CLB Harry Cox

5y

Having 18 tds in 14 games

ovocrew

5y

...and another stud corner too!