streamable.com/pgvv1d

living rent free in his head lol

Same as everyone else picking Trump, worries about votes being left uncounted or thrown in the garbage

Idk how it will go man. Just fingers crossed.

coomers have no self respect

I doubted the polls in 2016 based off enthusiasm I saw without any real metrics to back it up. Eventually looked into the polling and found that Trump voters were polling a lot higher on how seriously they intended to actually get out and vote. I factored in that enthusiasm gap (something like 15% in 2016 i don’t remember exactly anymore lol) and found that Trump would get 306. I thought he would get NH and Nevada and lose Wisconsin, which all totaled up to 306 but I was off still with those lol.

This time around, I think polls are really underestimating Republican enthusiasm for Trump. 95% approval among republicans (up 30% from Election Day 2016) and his approval among independents hasn’t really changed from 2016 (down 1 point to 41%).

The approval rating and the insane primary numbers for Trump have me thinking that Republicans are gonna be coming out in force (18 million in an uncontested primary, 30% more than he got in 2016 when he actually had challengers, almost as much as the entire 2016 primary combined, more than Obama 2012 and Bush 2004 primary’s combined, with half the states voting during a pandemic).

Lastly the early voting numbers in mainly Texas, but also Wisconsin and Michigan, have me second guessing the polls. Historical trends say democrats lead early voting. This should be extra true in 2020 thanks to COVID, and Trump has been railing against early voting and polls show 40% of his supporters are waiting for Election Day. Republicans are outpacing democrats and independents combined by 6 points in early voting in Texas, a state that polls have him leading by 2 points.

Early voting is frowned upon to try to draw too many conclusions from. But to me, the numbers suggest that Biden is losing Texas by significantly more than 2 points. And if the polls are off by multiple points in Texas, then how off will they be elsewhere?

Damn I just typed way more than I expected to lmao

My a***ysis is more of a gut feeling than anything scientific lol. I just think that once again, republicans are being under sampled. I’ll gladly be wrong though lol, 4 years of general normalness sounds pretty delightful

think I read somewhere how there’s an a***ysis expert who’s never been wrong about an election prediction

even had trump winning 16 but he’s predicting Biden for tomorrow so we’ll see

what a dumbass

saw something that said even with pollsters over accounting for republicans, Biden still takes the W

I’ve read about him if we’re talking about the same guy. His methodology was weird to me, he didn’t go much off of polling and instead had like a list of 12 things the candidates had to meet (stuff like “scandal free” and “charisma”). If they met a certain amount of those things he would call the election for them. I think he’s been right every time so he must be on to something, but I just felt like it was a little odd.

He said at one point that the campaign itself didn’t matter if they met the criteria lol.

If Biden’s gonna win why is all of LA boarded up like massive riots are about to happen

are you implying trump is going to win california

Cause there’s still a psychotic minority of trumpies in Cali

Either way it's gonna be bad

Either Biden supporters are gonna be pissed or Trump supporters are gonna be pissed

Night after will be a lot worse if Biden wins

Trump actively plays to his far-right base, who are very crazy and love guns

Biden actively disavows the far-left, who are way less crazy and generally unarmed anyway

Oh god oh god

nah itll be way worse if trump wins lmao

blm etc will riot

The rising is hosting an Election Day stream
!

How bad is this?

ABC back with hyping this up like its a PPV fight

lmao why do all these people so willingly do shows with saagar, who is basically tucker carlson

I don't like bro.... but we must see what the other side think to criticize it. I was the rising daily and he is right on SOME occasions

sent the link of this so I can put this in op

uh yeah some right wing neofascists are very good at using left wing economic to advance their agenda.

RCP includes Rass and Trafalgar. Disregard jt

Buffstreamz gonna be poppin