Just looked, they had her at 71%. It was New York Times that had her at 99%

Idk though, I’ve got a feeling that he’s gonna win. Same feeling I had in 2016. There’s just a few signs that his support is being understated, and that the polls aren’t weighing conservative turnout properly.

Polls are good for finding out how groups of people feel, I think it’s harder to try to determine how big each group will end up being.

I had Trump winning in 2016.

I've been 3-0 ever since 2008.

The fact that any poll had Biden leading in Texas shows it’s over.

While a lot of places like the NYT were just straight up and flat out very wrong, the whole "EVERYONE HAD HILLARY IN A LANDSIDE" thing is lowkey Trump propaganda to make him seem like some ultimate underdog. The majority of polls were close, the overwhelming majority gave the edge to Clinton but the margins were way lower compared to what we see now.

And for the people who want to push that narrative, a lot of the citing people use comes from charts and graphs that came directly from election night, and those are ALWAYS going to heavily favor whoever jumps out to the early lead aka Democrats since the east coast is the first to start reporting numbers.

imagine not going entirely off betting averages

Imagine not realizing betting lines are determined by polls

If it was only based off polls there wouldnt be such a massive difference between models and betting averages. Most of the betting optimism is from Florida and NC early voting numbers. Would have worked in 2016 though because it was pretty much on point with 538's model

Yeah the polls were factually tighter than they are now, and they seemed to be trending in the direction towards Trump in the final days (after FBI reopened the investigation).

This election will be decided by who turns out more voters, that’s the only way the polls will be beaten. Obviously gonna have record turnout from both sides though

Donald gonna declare himself the winner at 11:59PM on Tuesday

Biden will probably win the popular vote for sure

Let's see if he can steal some of those smaller states from Trump so he can get some more electoral votes

He's leading in the polls for a lot of key places at the moment but so was Hilary before she lost so not really a factor right now

I do feel like more and more young people are voting this time around

The trafalgar Gandalf speaks. Don’t come for him , connie. That bow tie spins wildly & spikes fly out 😳

Look how defeated & mad he is, when Robert explains he called democratic winners as well.

If this guy bests Nate Silver again, it will be shambles. I guess we will see if trafalgar’s method is valid or just luck.

who u got this time

Biden's leads are larger than Hilary's were

He learned by watching rove.

I've been Biden for the past several months but I've been having second thoughts the past few days.

I'm nervous.

I voted Biden.

Ask me tomorrow lol

🤣🤣

It means nothing, let me show you how Michigan was likely taken in 2016.

Democrats are too cowardly to investigate, they always run away.

Palast for the win again. 20 years investigating just on elections. None of the major networks want to cover him, he’s been saying it over n over. And he’s right on the ground.

I mean I think Biden will win but s*** who knows

America is dumb

Democrats are too cowardly to investigate, they always run away. Judging by the reaction this week of Biden/Kamala , they aren’t prepared.

The table is set again, if it’s close.

Please don't quote me with this left wing hate s***

I couldnt give two f***s about either side bro

Gonna throw out my predictions on battlegrounds:

PA - Biden +3
MI - Biden +5
WI - Biden +5
FL - Biden +1
NC - Biden +2
AZ - Biden +3
GA - Trump +1
IA - Trump +1
OH - Trump +2
TX - Trump +2

It's going to be close in a lot of states, closer than the polls are saying, but the final EC won't look that close.

mostly bc y'all niggas never really offer solutions involving direct action

It’s going to be very very close

Getting unnecessary anxiety from this

We won’t know the results for weeks