Notes from OP

Looks like this isn’t an agreement of a final draft but rather the beginning of finalization talks around an agreed framework. There has been immense pressure from the Trump administration to introduce a mutually agreed upon ceasefire deal by the date of Trump’s inauguration, Jan 20. This was set by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in a meeting with PM Netanyahu, as reported by The Times of Israel. According to politicians interviewed by Channel 14, they are being “forced into surrender” by the Trump administration. The larger agenda for the Trump administration choosing a ceasefire deal and not further military action remains to be seen, especially considering the nominally equivalent position Trump held on Israel compared to the Biden administration. This is undoubtedly a massive flop on the Biden Administration and may have sealed their fate as one of the least popular presidential periods of American history.

MONDAY JANUARY 13

Reuters: Final draft of Gaza truce deal presented to sides after 'breakthrough', official says

DOHA/CAIRO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Mediators gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday to end the war in Gaza, an official briefed on the negotiations said, after a midnight "breakthrough" in talks attended by envoys of both outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump.

Biden said a ceasefire and hostage release deal he had championed was on "the brink" of coming to fruition and Hamas said it was keen on reaching an agreement. "The deal ... would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started," Biden said in a speech to highlight his foreign policy achievements.

The official briefed on the talks, who did not want to be otherwise identified, said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel's Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar's prime minister. "The deal ... would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started," Biden said in a speech to highlight his foreign policy achievements.

The official briefed on the talks, who did not want to be otherwise identified, said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel's Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar's prime minister.

Reuters: Main points of the Gaza ceasefire proposal

• HOSTAGE RETURN

In the first stage, 33 hostages would be set free. These include children, women, including female soldiers, men above 50, wounded and sick. Israel believes most are alive but has had no official confirmation from Hamas.

If the first stage proceeds as planned, on the 16th day from the deal taking effect, negotiations would start on a second stage during which the remaining living hostages - male soldiers and men of military age - would be released and the bodies of the dead hostages returned.

• TROOP WITHDRAWAL

The withdrawal would be phased, with Israeli forces remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages. In addition, there would be security arrangements at the Philadelphi corridor, along the southern edge of Gaza, with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.

Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed back, with a mechanism to ensure no weapons are moved there. Israeli troops will withdraw from the Netzarim corridor in central Gaza.

• INCREASED AID

There would be a significant increase of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, where international bodies including the United Nations warn that the population is facing a severe humanitarian crisis. Israel allows aid into the enclave but there have been disputes over the amount allowed in as well as the amount that reaches people in need, with looting by criminal gangs an increasing problem.

• FUTURE GOVERNANCE OF GAZA

Who will run Gaza after the war is one of the great unknowns of the negotiations and it appears that the current round of talks have not even addressed the issue due to its complexity and the likelihood it would hold up a limited deal. Israel has said Hamas can play no role at all and it has rejected the involvement of the Palestinian Authority, the body set up under the Oslo interim peace accords three decades ago that exercises limited sovereignty in the occupied West Bank.
It has also said from the beginning of its campaign in Gaza that it would retain security control over the enclave after the fighting ends.
The international community has said that Gaza must be run by Palestinians but efforts to find alternatives to the main factions among civil society or clan leaders have proved largely fruitless.

UPDATES: TUESDAY JANUARY 14

WaPo: Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal and hostage release in ‘final stages,’

Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” in months to agreeing on a ceasefire deal that could halt the devastating 15-month-long war in Gaza and release hostages, Qatar said Tuesday. “We believe that we have reached the final stages,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said in Doha, where negotiators are meeting, while seeking to temper expectations until a final deal is in place. But as to whether a deal would be announced Tuesday, a senior Hamas official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, replied: “No, no, no.” An Israeli official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks, said that the deal is now in Hamas’s hands. The first phase of the proposed deal would involve the release of 33 living hostages during a 42-day ceasefire, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, according to U.S. officials. Over the course of the war, ceasefire negotiations have faltered at the 11th hour on several occasions.

AP: A look at the terms — and tensions — in the Israel-Hamas draft ceasefire deal

CAIRO (AP) — If the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal goes according to the current draft, then fighting will stop in Gaza for 42 days, and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be freed. In this first phase Israeli troops will pull back to the edges of Gaza, and many Palestinians will be able to return to what remains of their homes as stepped-up aid flows in. The question is if the ceasefire will survive beyond that first phase.

That will depend on even more negotiations meant to begin within weeks. In those talks, Israel, Hamas, and the U.S, Egyptian and Qatari mediators will have to tackle the tough issue of how Gaza will be governed, with Israel demanding the elimination of Hamas. Without a deal within those 42 days to begin the second phase, Israel could resume its campaign in Gaza to destroy Hamas – even as dozens of hostages remain in the militants’ hands. Hamas has agreed to a draft of the ceasefire deal, two officials confirmed, but Israeli officials say details are still being worked out, meaning some terms could change, or the whole deal could even fall through. Here is a look at the plan and potential pitfalls in the draft seen by the Associated Press.

Swapping hostages for imprisoned Palestinians

During the first phase, Hamas is to release 33 hostages in exchange for the freeing of hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. By the end of the phase, all living women, children and older people held by the militants should be freed. Some 100 hostages remain captive inside Gaza, a mix of civilians and soldiers, and the military believes at least a third them are dead. On the first official day of the ceasefire, Hamas is to free three hostages, then another four on the seventh day. After that, it will make weekly releases.

Draft of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal

PHASE 1: (42 Days)

• Hamas releases 33 hostages, including female civilians and soldiers, children and civilians over 50
• Israel releases 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier
• Halt to fighting, Israeli forces move out of populated areas to the edges of the Gaza Strip
• Displaced Palestinians begin returning home, more aid enters the strip

PHASE 2: (42 Days)

• Declaration of “sustainable calm”
• Hamas frees remaining male hostages (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for a yet-to-be-negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.

PHASE 3:

• Bodies of deceased Israeli hostages exchanged for bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters
• Implementation of a reconstruction plan in Gaza
• Border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza are reopened

Which hostages and how many Palestinians will be released is complicated. The 33 will include women, children and those over 50 – almost all civilians, but the deal also commits Hamas to free all living female soldiers. Hamas will release living hostages first, but if the living don’t complete the 33 number, bodies will be handed over. Not all hostages are held by Hamas, so getting other militant groups to hand them over could be an issue. In exchange, Israel will free 30 Palestinian women, children or elderly for each living civilian hostage freed. For each female soldier freed, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences. In exchange for bodies handed over by Hamas, Israel will free all women and children it has detained from Gaza since the war began on Oct. 7, 2023. Dozens of men, including soldiers, will remain captive in Gaza, pending the second phase.

Israeli pullbacks and the return of Palestinians

During the proposed deal’s first phase, Israeli troops are to pull back into a buffer zone about a kilometer (0.6 miles) wide inside Gaza along its borders with Israel. That will allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, including in Gaza City and northern Gaza. With most of Gaza’s population driven into massive, squalid tent camps, Palestinians are desperate to get back to their homes, even though many were destroyed or heavily damaged by Israel’s campaign.

But there are complications. During the past year of negotiations, Israel has insisted it must control the movement of Palestinians to the north to ensure Hamas does not take weapons back into those areas. Throughout the war, the Israeli military has severed the north from the rest of Gaza by holding the so-called Netzarim Corridor, a belt across the strip where troops cleared out the Palestinian population and set up bases. That allowed them to search people fleeing from the north into central Gaza and bar anyone trying to return.

The draft seen by the AP specifies that Israel is to leave the corridor. In the first week, troops would withdraw from the main north-south coastal road – Rasheed Street – which would open one route for Palestinians returning. By the 22nd day of the ceasefire, Israeli troops are to leave the entire corridor. Still, as talks continued Tuesday, an Israeli official insisted the military will keep control of Netzarim and that Palestinians returning north would have to pass inspections there, though he declined to provide details. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss closed negotiations.

Working out those contradictions could bring frictions. Throughout the first phase, Israel will retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt, including the Rafah Crossing. Hamas dropped demands that Israel pull out of this area.

Humanitarian aid

In the first phase, aid entry to Gaza is to be ramped up to hundreds of trucks a day of food, medicine, supplies and fuel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. That is far more than Israel has allowed in throughout the war. For months, aid groups have struggled to distribute to Palestinians even the trickle of aid entering Gaza because of Israeli military restrictions and rampant robberies of aid trucks by gangs. An end to fighting should alleviate that.

The need is great. Malnutrition and diseases are rampant among Palestinians, crammed into tents and short on food and clean water. Hospitals have been damaged and short of supplies. The draft deal specifies that equipment will be allowed in to build shelters for tens of thousands whose homes were destroyed and to rebuild infrastructure like electricity, sewage, communications and road systems.

But here, too, implementation could bring problems. Even before the war, Israel has restricted entry of some equipment, arguing it could be used for military purposes by Hamas. Another Israeli official said arrangements are still being worked out over aid distribution and cleanup, but the plan is to prevent Hamas from having any role.

Further complicating matters, Israel’s government is still committed to its plan to ban UNRWA from operating and to cut all ties between the agency and the Israeli government. The UN agency is the major distributor of aid in Gaza and provides education, health and other basic services to millions of Palestinian refugees across the region, including in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

The second phase

If all of that works out, the sides must still tackle the second phase. Negotiations over it are to begin on Day 16 of the ceasefire. Phase two’s broad outlines are laid out in the draft: All remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.”

But that seemingly basic exchange opens up much bigger issues. Israel has said it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’ military and political capabilities are eliminated and it cannot rearm – ensuring Hamas no longer runs Gaza. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from everywhere in Gaza.

So the negotiations will have to get both sides to agree to an alternative for governing Gaza. Effectively, Hamas has to agree to its own removal from power – something it has said it is willing to do, but it may seek to keep a hand in any future government, which Israel has vehemently rejected. The draft agreement says a deal on the second phase must be worked out by the end of the first.

Pressure will be on both sides to reach a deal, but what happens if they don’t? It could go in many directions. Hamas had wanted written guarantees that a ceasefire would continue as long as needed to agree on phase two. It has settled for verbal guarantees from the United States, Egypt and Qatar. Israel, however, has given no assurances. So Israel could threaten new military action to pressure Hamas in the negotiations or could outright resume its military campaign, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened.

Hamas and the mediators are betting the momentum from the first phase will make it difficult for him to do that. Relaunching the assault would risk losing the remaining hostages – infuriating many against Netanyahu – though stopping short of destroying Hamas will also anger key political partners.

The third phase is likely to be less contentious: the bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a 3- to 5-year reconstruction plan to be carried out in Gaza under international supervision.

woah what

I feel like they didn't want Trump to escalate & give Israel even more support

That makes sense, he would've been even worse than the current admin so they're going to try and save face by finally ending this now. Way way way too overdue

Quite the opposite

Israel has been shooting down ceasefire proposals from Hamas with these exact terms since November 2023. The guarantee of Trump’s open support isn’t a factor in this sense since Hamas hasn’t budged, but rather Israel

in a few weeks americas foreign policy on israel might as well be being dictated by miriam adelson so israel might as well agree to this bare minimum capitulation, be granted the optics of a deescalation and wait for some trump 2.0 era goodies

This is a good take, giving ground to save face will help them on their way to commit more genocide

hmm

Not gonna say trump isn’t a factor but it’s probably a layer deeper like @Everest had posited

Libs spent the past 3 months shaming Palestinians for protest votes and saying s*** like “good luck when Trump turns Gaza into a parking lot IDC anymore”

Now Israel folding before Inauguration Day cus Trump told them behind the scenes that he not letting this s*** fly while he in office

it was the opposite, it would seem

if true the dnc is absolutely cooked after this biden term, what a useless organization

What changed then? Why are they down for it now

Trump forced it

Trump managed it all along, the Dems have no excuse for what they've done man

right. people underestimated how right-wing and zionist the DNC is and now look stupid. this is why the election never mattered, it was all about how the palestinian armed resistance could leverage the situation against the incoming administration.

Wow

sounds like this ain't a finalized proposal at all, unless the iof are just being forced to accept the continuance of the armed movement and some other major things that I feel like they wouldn't gloss over.

reuters.com/world/middle-east/negotiators-seek-finalise-gaza-ceasefire-deal-after-breakthrough-doha-2025-01-13

As of 15 minutes ago they are looking to finalize everything beginning tmr

I been down this "deal imminent" road before, we will see

the question of south lebanon and syria also hangs in the air.

How much longer is the SLebanese “ceasefire” supposed to last?

13 more days

"the larger agenda remains to be seen"

trump wants smoke with greenland and panama, not palestine. its called picking your battles.

if the joint operations room gets to keep some of the hostages thats a major W

what do they mean about "border patrols" though