Senior US government officials knew as far back as 2008 that the possibility of adding Ukraine to NATO was seen as a serious “military threat” by Russia, one that crosses Moscow’s security “redlines” and could force it to intervene.

Yet Western leaders continued insisting that Ukraine would join the US-led military alliance, right up until Russia did indeed intervene in February 2022.
But privately, US diplomats knew that this move would be seen as an existential threat by Moscow, and could provoke Russian military intervention in Ukraine.

The former US ambassador to Russia, William J. Burns, who is now director of the CIA, warned in a February 2008 embassy cable that Ukraine constituted a security “redline” for Moscow.

The confidential State Department cable was titled “Nyet Means Nyet: Russia’s NATO Enlargement Redlines” (“nyet” is Russian for “no”).

Burns cautioned IN 2008 that the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine “could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene.”

multipolarista.com/2022/02/27/us-nato-expansion-ukraine-russia-intervene

Really good article, check it out

Of course they did and Putin has been very vocal about wanting Ukraine to agree to the Minsk agreement. USA don’t give two s***s about the Ukrainian people, it’s all a political chess piece to take down Russia.

Yeah I know what you mean but it's like, there's other forces at play other than just Putin wanting to invade Ukraine for no reason

More like, the US knew Putin would do this if they pushed for Ukraine to join NATO for at least 14 years, and then they were like wtf why would Putin do this like they weren't well aware of this being the likely reaction.

issue: US denied nato membership in 2008

months later, georgia was invaded (my thoughts on the georgia war are separate)

ukraine cant join while donbass is an active conflict, and ukraine and georgia were both more keen to join nato than nato was to have them

furthermore, the initial verbal promise wasnt kept yes, but the baltics were only admitted in the early 2000s post putins rise. they initially were, and even before their admission to nato, the russian political establishment had already displayed revanchist rhetoric

Bro 100%. Impossible world leaders don’t talk and expressly say “fam don’t do that”, even in private.

US denied nato membership in 2008

This is not true lol, Ukraine got a NATO MAP in 2008, which was shelved when Yanukovich was elected in 2010, NATO membership was still highly unpopular in Ukraine back them

Oh damn

Yeah.. that was what the US ambassadors cable was mostly addressing

Add to that that Russia (even under Putin) always wanted to join NATO but were rejected, while the US pushed for Ukraine NATO membership and i can see why Russia felt backed into a corner

It doesn't excuse Russia's invasion, they have agency and ultimately took the decision, but the US definitely also has responsibility for knowingly leading Ukraine down a path where they knew Russia would intervene in Ukraine, both in the long term and short term

No s***

Duh doi!