https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
wtf does “no one” mean?
wtf does “no one” mean?
That means they just give Trump democratic nominee? :dno:
nate silver was right about 1 layup election in 2012 and now we all gotta pretend hes not full of s***
@Undecided lmao i think this is just in the event none of them clear the that needed threshold and it’s a contested convention, so idk if that’s just smart betting or we can consider that bloc to largely favor sanders
either way that and the other graph aren’t that damning imo since they are almost entirely projection and it’s not like biden and bernie have been neck and neck prior, i’m sure biden’s projections didn’t seem the best at the time he was struggling
@Undecided lmao i think this is just in the event none of them clear the that needed threshold and it’s a contested convention, so idk if that’s just smart betting or we can consider that bloc to largely favor sanders
either way that and the other graph aren’t that damning imo since they are almost entirely projection and it’s not like biden and bernie have been neck and neck prior, i’m sure biden’s projections didn’t seem the best at the time he was struggling
You can scroll back to before South Carolina where Bernie had a 50% chance and Biden was like at 10%.
What "fascist" tactics are you referring to then? That's usually the only complaint I've seen about them being violent
@gabapentin already nailed it. im not saying violence/fighting is exclusive to fascists. using violence to unlawfully silence and intimidate others in the name of ideology is.
wtf does “no one” mean?
it's just the odds that neither of them get the majority
nate silver was right about 1 layup election in 2012 and now we all gotta pretend hes not full of s***
nate silver is a dweeb of the highest degree but what he does has nothing to do with political a***ysis. it's all just math based statistics that he bases off of available data
he gets s*** for giving Trump a 30% chance at winning in, but all that means is if you held that election 100 times, T wins 30 of him. Because he did win doesnt make him "wrong"
I agree though, he got one election spot on and then people started sucking him off. The problem is, those same people dont understand probability take this s*** as gospel instead
You can scroll back to before South Carolina where Bernie had a 50% chance and Biden was like at 10%.
i mean idrk betting like that but seems to be expected, it’s all about just shifting projections based upon how the public “seems” to respond, which is largely first displayed through news and media, but the public does not always necessarily respond accordingly, which is when it gets shifted again, and we are currently within that waiting period.
i’m genuinely interested to see how betting projections (and results) have been for the last few notable campaigns ie obama/hillary, bernie/hillary, trump/republican primary, hillary/trump etc
Nate Silver needs to make like his hairline and disappear.
Can't believe he's still relevant after how horribly he fumbled the 2016 election every step of the race.
nate silver is a dweeb of the highest degree but what he does has nothing to do with political a***ysis. it's all just math based statistics that he bases off of available data
he gets s*** for giving Trump a 30% chance at winning in, but all that means is if you held that election 100 times, T wins 30 of him. Because he did win doesnt make him "wrong"
I agree though, he got one election spot on and then people started sucking him off. The problem is, those same people dont understand probability take this s*** as gospel instead
also every time he opens his mouth to say something other than numbers-wonk-shit its always insufferable drivel
I can't stop laughing at this account making fun of biden's dementia
https://twitter.com/biden4pres/status/1235364733152374785"full of beans" lmfaoooo
nate silver is a dweeb of the highest degree but what he does has nothing to do with political a***ysis. it's all just math based statistics that he bases off of available data
he gets s*** for giving Trump a 30% chance at winning in, but all that means is if you held that election 100 times, T wins 30 of him. Because he did win doesnt make him "wrong"
I agree though, he got one election spot on and then people started sucking him off. The problem is, those same people dont understand probability take this s*** as gospel instead
It always cracks me up when people bring up 2016 Trump numbers.
Yeah... they did predict Trump had a very small chance. The guy got 3,000,000 fewer votes and scraped by in one of the most unusual corner cases in the history of our elections.
Lmao everybody ITT mad as hell at Nate Silver
Y’all should just start hyping Bernie up to run 3rd party and meme it into existence cause he isn’t getting the nomination
saw it coming but still disappointing
boooooooo
Lmao everybody ITT mad as hell at Nate Silver
Y’all should just start hyping Bernie up to run 3rd party and meme it into existence cause he isn’t getting the nomination
nobody is mad at nate silver lol
Lmao everybody ITT mad as hell at Nate Silver
Y’all should just start hyping Bernie up to run 3rd party and meme it into existence cause he isn’t getting the nomination
don't think anyone is fuming at nate
he legit has had some terrible takes tho
fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination
like when he told everyone trump wouldn't win the gop nom
the 538 site does seem correct though with how everything is shifting at the moment
nobody is mad at nate silver lol
There’s multiple posts on this page s***ting on him lol
saw it coming but still disappointing
lmao, of course
There’s multiple posts on this page s***ting on him lol
whats ur point? hes easy to s*** on