I think the reason why I view AES as a very safe win is simple— the math.

I think that the national popular vote is going to be between +9-11 points in favor of Democrats, let’s say worst case though it’s +8. Let’s say that Michigan leans 1% in favor of GOP compared to the nation (in 2024 it was 0.5%). In that floor scenario, Michigan would still be +7 in favor of Democrats.

So basically in that floor scenario, if you think AES is going to lose to Roger’s, you would be telling me that you think AES is SUCH a horrible candidate and Roger’s is SUCH a great candidate that the candidate quality would be enough to swing a +7 handicap that Roger’s is going to have (and it could easily be even more).

That is sometimes enough in fringe circumstances when there are huge scandals for one candidate. But AES doesn’t have scandals and is a great politician with great fundraising ability and a great ground game.

I just fail to see how the math adds up to him losing.

Oops I made a mistake, it was +0.5% in favor of Dems in 2024 (not GOP)

So redoing that math, best case for GOP I can see would be a neutral +0 environment compared to national environment. So then the floor would be +8 handicap against Roger’s

Moulton got such a punchable face fr

Angie Nixon looks like she has a chance to beat Vindman in the FL primary tonight

She wrapped it up

Wow ‼️

I thought it would be impressive if the Dems could make the margin around 5-6%… the fact that they flipped it though?!

Just being realistic I am happy for the Florida wins but the difference in turnout for the Dems vs the republicans for the primary paints the picture already

It’s cooked

Yup similar feelings. On one hand it’s cool that a DSA member won there.

But on the other hand I’m actually thinking it’s a pretty bad thing, because Florida is a lost cause (for humanity) regardless, so all this will be is a chance to finger point at the DSA

She might lose, but she’s going out guns blazing

Media boutta Streisand effect her to victory

Man we got Hayley Stevens corrupt ass going hard in the paint for AES but Crockett (who is an extremely down the line partisan Dem) can’t get behind Talarico (who ideologically basically has the same makeup as her)…all because she’s just butt hurt that she lost to him, give me a f***ing break

On some real s*** who is taking down MAGA and why haven’t they announced McConnell’s death?!?!

getting pretty tired of not only the White supremacy, but also the Jewish supremacy in the US. s*** is exhausting af

We would rather support the con man pedophile regime than the guy who's against us bombing innocent families!!

Basically what I hear when I see anything for Mike Rodgers or the GOP.

LOOOOOL

There is nothing more important right now than Dems taking back the Senate to block the possibility of Trump adding anymore Supreme Court Justices.

🔥 🔥 🔥

Bro really out here dressed like that unc that think his fit fire 😂

This is who the GOP just chose as their senate nominee in South Carolina, definitely not the ideal candidate

He’s on a roll

Massachusetts Primary on Tuesday, really hope Moulton gets obliterated

You can’t be serious

damn near feels like Blackface. i dont buy for a sec he b puttin that s*** on