They’re trying to give Biden an opportunity to bow out on his own terms

If he doesn’t do it, Obama will turn. They’re not really friends anyway

yeah dont know boutbthis

Aren't you Canadian lol

polls can be gamed, individual pollers can have a party bias, etc. idk why anybody takes american polling data seriously anymore.

I believe the term is “blueAnon”

Scum of the earth

538 is an absolute joke since Nate Silver left.

Nate’s model (on his Substack, which is the old 538 model) and the Economist model have a massive Trump win

interesting.

publicly, yea he may not come out and clown him, although the tweet about "Everyone having bad debates" definitely felt like a dig to me. he probably will not publically call for him to stepdown, unless maybe Biden continues to refuse

What's you point

Dementia must run in his family, but let it get shaky
I'll park his son

Yah sure but this whole "Trump is for sure gonna win" rhetoric is straight twitter talk. It's still a competitive race

Politico said today something about the DNC not wanting to run either Joe or Kamala. Not sure how that would work, but interesting

I really can't think of a candidate they can run atm that people would feel REALLY confident about having a decent chance.

I suppose Kamala only because the American people are already nationally familiar with her, but outside of her I cannot think of anyone

gavin newsom

I'd image it's like less than a 5% chance, but if Michelle Obama ran it would be a home run nominee in terms of electability imo

But on a more realistic level I think you have to go with Kamala. Whitmer could also be an interesting candidate because of the success she's had in the midwest, but she also doesn't have anywhere near enough name recognition.

Even if he drops out, I feel like 4 months isn't gonna be enough to convince people to vote for someone else. Its over

I'm glad Democrats are in shambles regardless tho

this model makes no sense, why would there be a correction on trump’s polling lead when he was massively underestimated in both 2016 and 2020, if there’s a polling error it’s that his lead is actually bigger than polls would suggest which explains why so many prominent democrats who have access to internal polling want biden out

Democrats have been overperforming the polls in almost every election since Roe V Wade was overturned

Biden himself seems like the only thing dragging the party down recently in elections

final polls of the 22 midterms was republicans +3, they won the house with 2.8% of the popular vote. if anything the polls were more accurate that election. and even still it doesn’t make sense to compare midterms to a presidential election especially given trump’s over performance the last 2 times he was on the ballot

biden is down by over 2% in national polling, he won the popular vote in 2020 by almost 5% and the race was only won with 40k votes in the swing states.

every poll suggests biden has the narrowest pathway to victory in november whereas trump has several different ways he can get to 270

biden’s unpopularity + an even larger 3rd party vote share than 2016 and you begin to understand why dems want him out

It’s definitely over. But at least Kamala at the top of the ticket won’t lose Dems the senate

I wouldn’t say that it “would be over”

She would definitely be an underdog, but I feel like it would be as close as the 2020 election, except with Trump favored this time. She would have a fighters chance imo

It’s time

can this geezer catch a break?

Either horrible timing or the start to a few “medical” related events that will nudge him out

Interesting he’ll essentially be unable to respond to things like Schiff or directly speak to the public for days now