so did the cases jump up due to what’s going on rn or has nothing changed?

Probably unrelated. Way too early to be from the protests.

It seems lately that towards the end of the week the cases always seem to shoot up

My sister just got this s*** and she was shocked. Only had a fever for 3 days and felt fine after, no cough, no breathing issues. She don’t even know where she got it from

Not really, it’s been like 8 or 9 days

Yep

We will see more in around 14 days

So CA is just gona say f*** it and open bars I guess, but it depends on the county

If there is little cases in a smaller county, can make sense, but idk about LA county

Numbers will ofc shoot up, they will already be higher up in a few weeks when all the numbers come in for the protests and b/c we were already opening up more and more

Im slowly starting to think this covid s*** was never that dangerous to begin with. That initial death model really scared the s*** out of everyone.

It’s just the flu they got rid of the flu since the new year y’all notice that

I’ll never understand calling someone a doomer or saying it’s not dangerous after so many ppl have already died

Its definitely not as dangerous as they made it out to be in March fam.

Unless hospitalizations and deaths are going up along with cases, who cares really

There could be 8000 new cases a day in CA, but if the hospitals are handling the capacity and the same number of people are dying as were at 3000 (with 60%+ of them in nursing homes), all it's doing is reflecting the lower fatality rate the CDC already proposed.

The cat isn't going back in the bag. Unless the rate of new deaths spikes in the next 2-3 weeks, nothing is going to be done on the basis of cases alone, and I agree with that strategy.

Are you and @westtoronto125 trolling or crazy?

110k deaths and this all started in Feb WITH F***ING QUARANTINE FOR MONTHS

About 210 days left this year

If you go by 750 deaths a day on avg in a week (this is a conservative rate using the last few weeks).

Over 250k deaths by the end of the year (and then count Jan and Feb next yr)

If you go by around 1.5k deaths a day on avg and things get crazy with no quarantine and a 2nd peak, then we are over 400k deaths by end of the year.

FLU:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

Remember, this was all WITH quarantine and precautions we never take for the flu

It's not that dangerous for us young people in general but some people really can't think more than one minute about this and they aren't really affected by it.

No matter how old are the people who die from it, there are also families behind that are affected and can't say goodbye.

The US or Mexico are good examples of how many people can die. We have a lot of people who have pre-existing diseases. People with diabetes tend to have the worst course. The same with overweight people.

People outside of these countries don't understand it because they don't inform themselves and only see what is happening in their own country. Discussions with them are pretty pointless.

It’s pretty much impossible for the death rate to be completely the same for the rest of the year tho

Not saying this is the flu, it’s obviously worse. But extending deaths out linearly is just poor math

Realizing this makes all these alarmist articles about California’s increase in cases seem so silly

You're right, it can also be higher

The data lags

It takes a couple weeks for cases and hospitalizations to rise

Extra couple weeks for deaths

Deaths were at or around 2k+ deaths a day for around a few weeks and we had quarantined (but most of the damage was already done)

Why can't we go to 1-1.5k deaths a day again if everything is open (but we have some rules in place for distancing)?

You think I want to not go see Frank Ocean at Coachella?

Exactly that's some Twitter blue-check s***. I swear I've seen some of the most laughably awful "math" and "science" about this from those folks, who are all in their mid-30's and probably did their last equation decades ago

Any people here who went to the protests? Should I get tested? I had my mask on all the time but I saw so many people without

Just saying we don’t know the behavior of the virus like that. Where has the “spike” everyone has been talking about for literal months after spring break, reopening, various parties, etc.

If there’s no real discernible difference after we can see the effects of the protests, I’m pretty much in favor of everything opening

There is no logical reason for the death rate to increase significantly over the summer, as broadly improved supportive care has already been proposed as a rationale for the virus "weakening" here and abroad.

This article lays out many of the current arguments going on in the scientific community surrounding the coronavirus:

elemental.medium.com/could-the-coronavirus-be-weakening-as-it-spreads-928f2ad33f89

The only thing that could potentially happen is that hospital capacity maxes out because people just stop giving a f*** all around. That doesn't mean the virus is "deadlier," only that our capacity to support patients has failed. Similarly, the virus is not necessarily weakening because those who need care are able to see it and generally recover.

The present reality is that today saw the fewest COVID-19 deaths on a Friday since March and we've had the lowest 7 day average in months. The terrifying 3,600 new cases in California are being paired with 74 deaths, a lower number than New York even as they bring in a third of our cases. The cases in California have been climbing for weeks with no change in hospitalizations or deaths. COVID-19 is only as deadly as a state or country's capacity for treating it.

At this point, I'm not even suggesting anything in particular. I'm only saying what the likely course of action is going to be and what the rationale is behind it. If we reach a point where we're seeing 2,500-3,000 deaths a day like we were at the peak of the virus, this course may change.

Most large cities have not opened up most things even yet.

Most people have been staying indoors for most times with their household, wearing masks, trying to see limited amounts of friends and in outdoor situations mostly.

Let's see what happens by early July

Who knows, maybe the heat and mutations help kill this thing a lot

But how can you logically think it wouldn't spread?

We don't have anything near herd immunity

The antibody studies were COMPLETE GARBAGE for Los Angeles, somehow the % of people with antibodies was cut in half in May compared to April. This is likely b/c of small sample (1000 people I believe)

Now we should have 100s of thousands of people to over 1 million people (many will be asymptomatic and not counted as an active case) going out and about their daily life with no restrictions?

The number that we started with when Europeans and Chinese came here was probably a pretty low number (no real way of knowing how much, but ofc a low number when compared to hundreds of thousands)

Exactly. Because we dont know the common denominator for cases. At this point probably millions have it all over NA bringing the death rate to below 1%.

Idk why the media still counting cases when its already out there lol. Everyone will eventually get it from one person or the other.

The death number is the only important number. Because it gives us the only true fact we know for sure.

People seem to have forgotten that we locked down because people were dying in huge numbers. This hasnt been the case now for a month.

mind you sweden mostly stayed open