Bidens national lead is shrinking, 8.9+ average now.

It was 10.3 on October 10th

hearing a libertarian candidate may legitimately beat tom cotton for arkansas senate

damn.

its 10.5% on 538??

Where you hearing that? Last I saw Cotton had a very clear/huge lead

this whole election season got me mentally like

can’t wait for it to be over and check out

Sounds like you're looking at RCP instead of 538s polling average. 538 is much better because they weight polls based on the quality of polster/factor in partisan leans. 538 has had it steady, if not Biden increasing his national lead the last 3 weeks.

Not to mention state polling, which had been pretty ehh for Biden the previous 2 weeks, has really started to catch up to national polling (especially in midwest states).

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national

All that being said, I was looking at 2016 state polling earlier today and I was pretty surprised by just how off polling was across the board.

I guess I had this notion that it was only off in the big 3 midwest states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), but it was really across the board in a lot of other states too.

My hunch is that one big factor was that many people that didn't want Trump to win (and responded to polls saying they would vote for Hillary) didn't take Trump's odds of winning seriously and sat out the election. And I would assume that it won't be a factor for a second time in a row.

Also, the polling numbers right now would require even larger polling errors than 2016 to be wrong.

Finally, polling was definitely tightening up in the final week before the election in 2016. That's going to be something crucial to watch for this time. And we obviously won't know that for 1-2 weeks

It would have to really tighten for me to get nervous...not even worried about FL if everything else holds. Trafalgar has made the shift on RCP, 538 doesn't use them on their polling.

also TX was never this close in 2016 polling, another good sign.

Trumpers are banking heavily on Trafalgar being right

last poll was only like a 10% gap, and the rating/viewership/placement on the town hall were really good, he's now picking up endorsements from never-trumpers like Amash and some moderate republicans

538 does include Trafalgar, they just weight them properly, as one should.

The demographics have shifted in TX in the last 4 years. I'd say that's more independent of TX, than it is a sign for Biden's odds in general.

It’s insane to me that the President can legitimize QAnon conspiracy theories on national tv and that’s just something that’s somehow okay and good. F*** this

in Dallas...?

the simulation is cracking

Trump going real racist mode right now. He talked s*** about Ilhan Omar and AOC. He also said Biden was gonna flood Michigan with "terrorist refugees."

Trump is really a disgusting person.

Hitler talk

i saw a trump rally couple of days ago where he said something along the lines that ilhan omar had married her brother and came into the USA illegaly or something like that and the crowd was cheering

It’s only survey monkey but still

51st state when