we've been in a recession for years now but no one in the govt will admit it because they fudge numbers
so when they say there's a "risk of recession" they really mean risk of depression
What are some of the metrics that get fudged? Not denying what you're saying, just trying to learn more
What are some of the metrics that get fudged? Not denying what you're saying, just trying to learn more
Theres no way to fudge numbers like that on economic data. Wish i had a link to the article that explained it.
What are some of the metrics that get fudged? Not denying what you're saying, just trying to learn more
Post-90s and then again post 2012 metrics changed on measurements within the economy; this is largely because of divisive definitions on “market” vs “economy”. The most common definition for “recession” is historically tied to GDP. The problem is that this is not actually the sole definition (and even so GDP is a misleading metric due to the inclusion of FIRE-sector data). Common re-definitions for GDP-primary “recession” ignore other aspects such as labor markets, credit, diffusion, cash flow, or other factors. The other difference in GDP is it’s easy to define or redefine based on multiple factors - hence why you get so many distinct terms like “real GDP”/etc - again not getting into the FIRE vs non-FIRE distinction too
Post-90s and then again post 2012 metrics changed on measurements within the economy; this is largely because of divisive definitions on “market” vs “economy”. The most common definition for “recession” is historically tied to GDP. The problem is that this is not actually the sole definition (and even so GDP is a misleading metric due to the inclusion of FIRE-sector data). Common re-definitions for GDP-primary “recession” ignore other aspects such as labor markets, credit, diffusion, cash flow, or other factors. The other difference in GDP is it’s easy to define or redefine based on multiple factors - hence why you get so many distinct terms like “real GDP”/etc - again not getting into the FIRE vs non-FIRE distinction too
It’s not just FIRE, they make no distinction between productive and unproductive industries at all, including like retail and government stuff. So a lot of s*** gets double counted
It’s not just FIRE, they make no distinction between productive and unproductive industries at all, including like retail and government stuff. So a lot of s*** gets double counted
good example of why FIRE data is complete bullshit is that buybacks and dividends are both counted as a share of GDP lmao
Welp we’re in for a Great Depression tier crisis now
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1820961181118689476It’s over