Oct 7, 2020·1 replyMost democrats are doing mail in ballots, a majority of Biden votes won't be counted for weeks.
Trump will claim he won on election night.
Oct 7, 2020
Monky businesseven with a 3% margin of error, a lot of polls have it so the MoE only pertains to one set of the vote. So, in a two party race, it would effectively double meaning the results could flip anywhere in a 6 point margin
thats a good point
Oct 7, 2020
Oct 7, 2020SlimeySpiderMost democrats are doing mail in ballots, a majority of Biden votes won't be counted for weeks.
Trump will claim he won on election night.
that's why it's safest to show up in person, so biden wins on election night in a way that's so decisive that trump can't contest it. the less close it is, the sooner he'll concede.
Oct 7, 2020
starkbelieving polls
oh no no no 2016 is gonna happen again
Remember when the dem nomination polls for this year would get announced on the news before they even opened
Oct 7, 2020
MalakasHow do these polls get counted? Do they ask random people who they're voting for? Who are they asking?
The polls have break downs on respondents. Some polls may over sample certain demographics but the ones I’ve looked at seem accurate
- Oct 7, 2020·1 reply
Sissiif 2016 happened Biden would still win with the lead he has
and you can't compare this election to 2016 lmao, Trump has been in office for 4 years
Clinton had a bigger lead in the battlegrounds at this point than Biden has now, but I think Trump is on a downward trajectory at this point
- Oct 7, 2020
I live in Ohio. Biden really needs to win Ohio. If he doesn’t, Trump could easily win.
Oct 7, 2020TheoryClinton had a bigger lead in the battlegrounds at this point than Biden has now, but I think Trump is on a downward trajectory at this point
there's also still plenty of time to shift back for Trump
- Oct 7, 2020·1 reply
+5 in IOWA
PIMP 💿Oct 7, 2020·1 replyBruh when Trump win what will y'all say then
- Oct 7, 2020
I have my fingers crossed but last election reminded me to never take anything for granted
- Oct 7, 2020
If Biden wins trump only has Trump to blame 🤷♀️
Oct 7, 2020The raw numbers aren't as important as the trends. Biden was already doing well with a 7 point national lead going into debate night.
He's up to +9.4 with that number skyrocketing daily and there's not really a damn thing Trump can do about it right now.
OPOct 7, 2020TheoryTrump also had a largely underlooked advantage throughout the 2016 polls. When respondents were asked how likely they were to actually go out and vote, Trump supporters were a lot more likely to actually vote. I think that advantage would be gone this time, with Democrats being really fired up to vote him out.
Exactly
- OPOct 7, 2020
CudderwalksWhat people don't understand when they say "believing the polls lol"
Is that Trump was only down 2-3% to Hillary in most polls the day before the election, not 16%
Trump was within the margin of error in 2016, he is way f***ing outside of it right now.
Unless something drastically changes Biden won theres only a few weeks left
- OPOct 7, 2020
Lou
Oct 7, 2020Fake news?
- OPOct 7, 2020https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417HURRYUPSONIC
+5 in IOWA
Penn wins the election for whoever wins it
- Oct 7, 2020
Lol electoral college will step in
- Oct 7, 2020
I think polls just aren't trustworthy with Trump because they don't take into account his base of supporters are VERY furvent and dedicated unlike any other presidential candidate in recent history.
For example, a poll could show 45% Trump and 55% Biden however it doesn't show that 45% in favor of Trump are literally dedicated ass stans who are absolutely all showing up to vote for him. Meanwhile the 55% for Biden has so many people who are just 'kinda in favor' of him or don't mind him, but aren't actually going hard in support for him and many might just not vote or weren't planning to vote to begin with.
TLDR: Trump's base turns out for him like any other candidate in recent history, so even when he's polling lower I still feel like at the end of the day his base is so dedicated they are turning out in rates that exceed the polls.
- Oct 7, 2020
Eh, I feel like it’s a 50/50 right now, wouldn’t be shocked either way
- Oct 7, 2020·1 replyhttps://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313878172555972610HURRYUPSONIC
Now this is cap lol, no way Texas goes from Trump winning by 9 points to losing it
- Oct 7, 2020·3 repliesTheory
Now this is cap lol, no way Texas goes from Trump winning by 9 points to losing it
He really never trailed in Iowa back in 2016
also look at this