LMAO

i havent delved in but

if it worked well, it could maybe placate some separatists and non separatists disillusioned with ukraine. a huge factor in the success of crimea was that while the majority werent necessarily for annexation, their faith in kiev and the central government to care about them was rock bottom

giving them more power to establish and represent themselves could potentially make some things better

i'm writing an essay on the gray zone with regards to russia and ukraine, and establishing strong governance and faith in authority is a strong counter to the kind of f***ery russia pulled

On the grayzone?

the grey zone of international politics

it's a grey area, where states seeking to alter the international order deploy tactics such as hybrid warfare, political warfare and other unconventional tools to pursue their goals

The key is that these threats are all below the threshold for sparking international conflict- and are often ambiguous in their intent. in this way you cant truly say a state operating in the grey zone is at fault or planning to invade/ destabilise their neighbours. it means they can slowly erode and obtain their objectives whilst avoiding backlash from conventional warfare

Interesting concept tbh, BUT, before a country qualifies, they gotta prove they ain’t trigger happy af

The countries that don’t qualify still need to be protected by an umbrella coalition of other countries (if you nuke a country that has no nukes, 3-5 mfs have to bust ya ass with nukes too).

Since you're writing a paper on it, do you think the Donbass will ever be apart of Ukraine again?

It just seems as long as the separatists have Russian support they'll never be able to retake the region. So they're fighting an endless war which is basically winless. The region is very anti-Kiev and would cost tons of money to reintegrate. You could also argue bringing back a largely Russian speaking region with many of it's citizens being pro-Russia would give Putin more leverage over Ukraine to either threaten reigniting the conflict or having Russia come in to defend Russian speakers.

I don’t support either side but it seems like it'd be better for Ukraine to just give up the region tbh

putin got what he wanted

he'll withdraw the troops until the next time

In stable countries it could work. But in countries where terrorists move it could be very dangerous since the real nut jobs don't care bout their or other lives

So that means we nuking the US?

Like the US

Yeah if they come into power it could be over for the world

Already is over

But anyway.. US not the ones that can talk abt being scared of countries using their nukes bc you know.....

But then literally rn since world would be nuked

Meant it kinda like violent groups that don't even care bout being in power much but only want to destroy others

I understand but there are rly no groups who don't care about being in power who would ever come to power bc well.. they wouldnt care to

I think if every country would have nukes it would avoid a lot of war between states but that inner state conflicts would be the biggest problem and fear since the nut jobs can get the access to nukes. That's kinda what i meant if it makes sense. Wasnt even talking bout the hyprocites from the USA who complain bout others having nukes while they have the most

They could try to get access to it just w the sole reason to destroy tho

One nuke isn't enough to ensure mutually assured destruction

I don't see why states wouldnt just band together and produce similar outcomes. The international domain is the state of nature

Lock thread

Even the CIA’s William Burns admitted that US intel had no intel to “conclude” that Russia will dutifully answer the War Inc prayers and finally “invade” Ukraine.

asiatimes.com/2021/12/what-putin-really-told-biden

Creating a crisis so Biden do as if he's being tough on Russia lmao

That's the point

Youre not meant to be certain they'll invade, the whole point is to create ambiguity and uncertainty

Russia has already annexed crimea and aided Donbas insurgents

This doesn't guarantee russia will invade ukraine but also shows it's not outside the realm of possibility

This thread is titled 'potential' Russian invasion of Ukraine

No one believes it inevitable; the point is to dicuss

thread preview: Potential Russian Invasion of U...

full title: Ukraine

TB propagating state department line as usual