what do predictit and metaculus say tho

The government ain't never gonna stop funding my military state no matter what

what does VC stand for ?

predictit doesn't do markets unfortunately, metaculus gives it like a 60% so yeah we're f***ed

venture capital

We already in it tho

Invest in water y'all

"FIRE" (finance - insurance - real estate) makes up almost 1/3 of the US's entire GDP. all of that is literally fake and most of it is tied to speculating in other sectors of which barely any makes money but is refurbished with unsustainable credit recursively. tech makes up another 10-15%. between FIRE & tech you're talking like 40%~ of the economy being fake MINIMUM, not even getting into how other sectors are heavily tied into this due to the reliant on FIRE, especially in terms of credit. If the bubble pops you're basically talking about EVERY major financial institution having an 08 moment - except there isn't gonna be any institution with enough speculative capital to acquire their assets BECAUSE of the fact it's their sector getting bombed. s*** is going to be cataclysmic

Probably the worst thing you can do, and definitely the most evil

How can you say it's unlikely to be as bad when the Damocles sword has been hanging over the US for almost 15 years

Only reason I think it's unlikely is it depends how soon bubbles pop. Bubbles tend to be very resilient especially when they're basically propped up by both government and global institutions rather than just domestic. I don't think it's "unlikely" long-term, only short-term. In our lifetime it's basically guaranteed, so I mean it more in terms of will it happen in the next 2 years

energy breaks inflation falls fed pivots wyd

One solution

A lot can happen in 1.5 years ...

At least millennials and Gen Z’ers will have a better chance to buy a house.

So 99? 🤣

The Ukraine war shortened the timeframe for a recession to happen by like double

By the time gen z can afford homes the places they will be will become inhospitable

let it crash

start fresh in a few years

FWIW the average age of homes available has increased to 40 years old. That’s the highest it’s been ever.

Imagine fighting to keep around “historical” homes. Tear it down.

I’m talking climate change

There is no starting fresh

When mother Earth tears down your historic homes and monuments.

bruh we just got out of covid

how? economy should be booming!