This is factual?

Fair enough. I just feel like people underplay how transportive the world building is.

LETS GOOOOOO WAY OF WATER SWEEP

The biggest box offices in the last year are No Way Home (1.9 million), Top Gun (1.5) and Jurassic Park (1.0).

I don’t see it coming close to No Way Home because of how much hype was surrounding that movie, so the Top Gun range is the highest I think it will peak if word of mouth is good

It can come close to No Way Home if the movie has strong legs. Again, I think Avatar 2 is very marketable to a very different part of the population that doesn't really care for social media or capeshit or part of Gen Z/Millenials so it will have a larger outreach. Now in terms of getting the younger people to see it, it will have to be a great story that audiences love and that will be the challenge. But if the movie can generate immense crowd love, it is easily capable of surpassing No Way Home's box office because it just has larger crowd outreach potential than the MCU.

Also depends on China and their lockdown situation. That was a huge reason Avatar made the money it did.

real movie heads already got love for Abel after this one 🤝

Top Gun had exactly that; an audience that skews older/isn’t on social media a ton, and the movie generated immense crowd love. It peaked out at 1.5.

That’s why I’m saying the best case scenario for Avatar 2 is the 1.5 range, assuming it gets great reception.

Also, I’m not sure why you keep claiming that Avatar has a bigger outreach than the MCU does because that’s just not true whatsoever. People of all ages and all backgrounds adore comic books and comic book movies, the MCU’s audience isn’t as generalized as you think it is.

There was a poll done by the Morning Consult and Gen Z’ers only made up 9% of those who identified as MCU fans. Millennials and Gen X’ers accounted for 65% in total

It will. I’ve already purchased 38 tickets. I’m taking every living member of my family to see it at least twice

It will certainly beat out all those except maybe top gun

MCU flicks have no legs. The 2nd week drop offs are insane on those

You said it’ll beat out the MCU movie, but not Top Gun.

That doesn’t make sense since No Way Home did 1.9 billion and Top Gun did 1.5.

How would Avatar 2 be higher than 1.9 billion but lower than 1.5 billion

You’re right, I misread. It will beat out top gun as well

Again, I think y’all’s expectations are way too high.

Box office in general has been lower since the pandemic, superhero movies are the only movies that have really been knocking it out of the park. Top Gun did a lot better than anyone expected and that was mostly because of great word of mouth.

Avatar 2 has nowhere near the anticipation of No Way Home, so for it to come close to 2 billion it would literally have to be a movie that 99% percent of people absolutely love and want to re-watch.

The 1.5 ballpark range is way more realistic, and it’s still a major win for the film

yeah but I think Avatar is also a lot more of a big visual extravaganza which Top Gun wasn't. Usually the spectacles attract people more whereas Top Gun's appeal was that it was a fun Tom Cruise crowdpleaser. Also Avatar has far more international potential than Top Gun too.

That poll is looking at % of MCU fandom. I am saying Gen X, Boomers, and older were a lot more interested in a movie like Avatar than they'd be for the MCU. Avatar made as much money as Endgame not even counting for inflation so it drove up a way larger audience.

And again, a lot of the success of that first movie can be contributed to the phenomenon of the visual effects.

Like you said earlier, it’s gonna be a lot harder to wow audiences in 2022 with visual effects unless it’s something truly forward thinking and ground-breaking. Audiences didn’t return to Avatar 1 for the story or the characters, they returned for the remarkable CGI and 3D.

And idk why you’re acting like Avatar is some art house film in comparison to the MCU when both properties are visually appealing, CGI heavy, family friendly, crowd-pleasing, big budget blockbusters

The demographics really aren’t that different

I think you’re right for the most part but

Capeshit fatigue is setting in heavily, marvel been dropping duds all year. I think avatar will offer a nice change of pace and general audiences were fond of the first one.

I do agree the avatar hype isn’t as high as Spider-Man was, but I’m confident that once the film actually drops that word of mouth will help heavily. Cameron has never missed on a sequel + he and the cast seem quite confident about this one

china release will also help immensely

Btw Cameron mentioned that he’s confident people will rewatch this several times

thats why I'm saying if it delivers on both the visuals aspect and the story, it could be groundbreaking for that alone. And I got no reason to doubt Cameron because he never missed

Produced by Swedish House Mafia??

I feel like people have been saying “superhero fatigue” for half a decade now, meanwhile Wakanda Forever has been #1 at the box office since it released.

I agree that Marvel overall this year was lacking in quality, but it’s completely wrong to say that general audiences are fatigued of these movies when they’re still topping the box office for weeks at a time and reeling in billions of dollars.

And again, I don’t see how Avatar is a “change of pace” from Marvel when they’re a lot more similar than some want to admit.

Both are CGI heavy, family friendly, crowd-pleasing, big budget blockbusters. I think it’s gonna be much harder for Avatar 2 to stand out this time around since the last decade of cinema has been dominated by this specific type of film

@op

I think the story needs to be a lot stronger this time around because I don’t think audiences will be as easily impressed with the visual effects.

If Cameron came through with the writing and it gets great word of mouth, then it can possibly near 1.8-1.9 but that’s an extreme best case scenario

Let’s be real… if it were any other film
Besides black panther, it would not be #1 by now. Black panther is one of the biggest sub-franchises in the mcu. It was also one of the 2 phase 4 films that didn’t s*** the bed

i think the only things mcu films and avatar share in common are the fact that they’re blockbusters

Avatar has way more heart, passion, and soul poured into it than any mcu film. I fw the mcu (phase 3 and prior) but they just don’t have that same level of care and craftsmanship that James Cameron puts in his work. Basically, mcu is a bit too corporate and as of late… quite rushed

I think TWOW will feature a more compelling story than anything marvel has put out in years, not just another dumb popcorn flick. A story with real heart and emotion will stick with people. Yes I know BP2 has emotion to it. That’s why it’s stuck around so long in the BO

People will be wowed by the beautiful cgi and then captivated by the compelling story.. I just can’t see this underperforming

Unfortunately for him the movie is gonna flop