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  • Scratchin Mamba

    He'll defend any form of imperialism, even if by his own admission he doesn't know s*** about the situation lol

    No that wasn't a defense, I said the West had an interest, not that it was justified

    Go see what I said in the Cuba thread for a counterpoint

  • Nov 25
    1 reply
    Scratchin Mamba

    He'll defend any form of imperialism, even if by his own admission he doesn't know s*** about the situation lol

    i don't think he was defending it, it read more like he was trying to write a synopsis of what the context was from what he knew about it

  • Scratchin Mamba 鈼硷笍
    OP
    Nov 25
    1 reply
    krishna bound

    i don't think he was defending it, it read more like he was trying to write a synopsis of what the context was from what he knew about it

    Well he got the synopsis completely wrong then

  • Nov 25
    1 reply
    Scratchin Mamba

    Well he got the synopsis completely wrong then

    well he did preface it with "i don't know much" to be fair so i think he was looking to be corrected

  • Scratchin Mamba 鈼硷笍
    OP
    Nov 25
    krishna bound

    well he did preface it with "i don't know much" to be fair so i think he was looking to be corrected

    Guess that's one way to interpret that

  • Scratchin Mamba 鈼硷笍
    OP
    Nov 25
  • Scratchin Mamba 鈼硷笍
    OP
    Nov 25
    1 reply

    Good.. f*** all of em

  • Nov 25

    Hope the Ethiopans i know are okay :(

  • Nov 26
    1 reply

    Setting up two Oligarchic governments in one year! Could be a personal best for a US president.

  • Scratchin Mamba
    https://twitter.com/Liyupixar/status/1463974412068208642

    Good.. f*** all of em

    I was talking to you about this conflict a couple months ago and told you this lmao

    The GERD in the northwest of Ethiopia would pretty much transform western allied Egypt into an ethiopian vassal state in a matter of years lol, not a surprising development from the US et al

  • Nov 26
    1 reply
    Frankito Reynolds

    Setting up two Oligarchic governments in one year! Could be a personal best for a US president.

    Bro you're a weirdo and don't know much about the situation there lol just keep talking about Iran and leave this topic alone

  • Nov 26
    1 reply
    pumadon

    Bro you're a weirdo and don't know much about the situation there lol just keep talking about Iran and leave this topic alone

    You support USA doing this?
    You are the weirdo....

  • Nov 26
    1 reply
    Frankito Reynolds

    You support USA doing this?
    You are the weirdo....

    Absolutely not lol

    The TPLF is without a doubt the most psychopathic and genocidal group in Africa and that's saying a lot

  • pumadon

    Absolutely not lol

    The TPLF is without a doubt the most psychopathic and genocidal group in Africa and that's saying a lot

    I was being sarcastic in my comment. By personal best I don't mean it's a good thing...
    Im a weirdo for complaining about USA setting up oligarchic governments abroad?

  • Nov 26
    2 replies
    space cadet bulls

    what dam

    Egypt gets 95% of its water from the Nile river which starts in Ethiopia, their economy is as dependent on it as a human is dependent on air. Iirc a 1% drop in the water level there would kill hundreds of thousands of jobs.

    Ethiopia built a huge dam on the river in Ethiopia a decade ago and now is in the process of filling it up in a 7 year long process as agreed with egyptian govt. The problem though is that there's no binding agreement between the 2 countries on what would happen in case of a drought and without an agreement the ethiopian government would be pretty much able to retain water for its own starving citizens which would destroy Egypt (and I mean this in the most literal sense, like this would turn Egypt into a failed state overnight).

    It's basically a zero sum game between the 2 countries now with existential consequences and the west really doesn't want Egypt to lose because it would cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever in Europe and the Suez canal might be at risk. They also don't want Ethiopia to break apart because this would also cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever so the goal now is to put the TPLF in charge and keep the country unified, which is kinda impossible if you know anything about Ethiopia current internal politics.

  • Nov 26
    3 replies
    pumadon

    Egypt gets 95% of its water from the Nile river which starts in Ethiopia, their economy is as dependent on it as a human is dependent on air. Iirc a 1% drop in the water level there would kill hundreds of thousands of jobs.

    Ethiopia built a huge dam on the river in Ethiopia a decade ago and now is in the process of filling it up in a 7 year long process as agreed with egyptian govt. The problem though is that there's no binding agreement between the 2 countries on what would happen in case of a drought and without an agreement the ethiopian government would be pretty much able to retain water for its own starving citizens which would destroy Egypt (and I mean this in the most literal sense, like this would turn Egypt into a failed state overnight).

    It's basically a zero sum game between the 2 countries now with existential consequences and the west really doesn't want Egypt to lose because it would cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever in Europe and the Suez canal might be at risk. They also don't want Ethiopia to break apart because this would also cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever so the goal now is to put the TPLF in charge and keep the country unified, which is kinda impossible if you know anything about Ethiopia current internal politics.

    Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
    Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

  • pumadon

    Egypt gets 95% of its water from the Nile river which starts in Ethiopia, their economy is as dependent on it as a human is dependent on air. Iirc a 1% drop in the water level there would kill hundreds of thousands of jobs.

    Ethiopia built a huge dam on the river in Ethiopia a decade ago and now is in the process of filling it up in a 7 year long process as agreed with egyptian govt. The problem though is that there's no binding agreement between the 2 countries on what would happen in case of a drought and without an agreement the ethiopian government would be pretty much able to retain water for its own starving citizens which would destroy Egypt (and I mean this in the most literal sense, like this would turn Egypt into a failed state overnight).

    It's basically a zero sum game between the 2 countries now with existential consequences and the west really doesn't want Egypt to lose because it would cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever in Europe and the Suez canal might be at risk. They also don't want Ethiopia to break apart because this would also cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever so the goal now is to put the TPLF in charge and keep the country unified, which is kinda impossible if you know anything about Ethiopia current internal politics.

    thank u

  • krishna bound

    Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
    Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

    Obama's 2009 Cairo University speech was effective indeed.

  • Nov 26
    edited
    2 replies
    krishna bound

    Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
    Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

    Sudan isn't particularly harmed by the GERD though since they get most of their water from other sources. They also would profit from the dam because they'd be able to regulate the flow and prevent floods and they would also be able to get cheap energy from Ethiopia which they desperately need. They're actually in a negotiation with the govt of Ethiopia to buy 1000MW of electricity directly sourced from that dam. Basically they're not actually serious about attacking Ethiopia.

    A military offensive from Egypt is also literally a meme. To get this approved they would need Sudan's permission to drive through their territory but since the GERD has already been filled for the past 2 years, Ethiopia now has a WMD pointed directly at Sudan. Even if they did get the permission though, the sudanese govt doesn't actually control the land bordering the dam so Egypt would need to pacify a rebel group in control of a whole state. But let's imagine they managed to do this, the land there is not actually paved at all or anything so they would need to kill themselves financially to establish a supply line there. Ok but what if they did that too? Well then the first thing the ethiopian government would do if Egypt took control of the dam is diverting the river down south to starve out the egyptians into surrender, for this to not happen Egypt would need to conquer the entirety of Beninshangul Gumuz and Amhara (200,000km^2 and over 20M people) and that's without taking into account the mountainous geography there.

    See what I'm getting at? It's not a coincidence or a stroke of luck that Ethiopia was never colonized by the europeans, that place is literally a geographical fortress.

  • krishna bound

    Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
    Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

    source for the electricity negotiations: enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/sudan-may-buy-1-gw-electricity-ethiopia.html

    source for the positive economic effects of the dam for sudan: sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212428415000122

  • Nov 26
    1 reply
    pumadon
    路 edited

    Sudan isn't particularly harmed by the GERD though since they get most of their water from other sources. They also would profit from the dam because they'd be able to regulate the flow and prevent floods and they would also be able to get cheap energy from Ethiopia which they desperately need. They're actually in a negotiation with the govt of Ethiopia to buy 1000MW of electricity directly sourced from that dam. Basically they're not actually serious about attacking Ethiopia.

    A military offensive from Egypt is also literally a meme. To get this approved they would need Sudan's permission to drive through their territory but since the GERD has already been filled for the past 2 years, Ethiopia now has a WMD pointed directly at Sudan. Even if they did get the permission though, the sudanese govt doesn't actually control the land bordering the dam so Egypt would need to pacify a rebel group in control of a whole state. But let's imagine they managed to do this, the land there is not actually paved at all or anything so they would need to kill themselves financially to establish a supply line there. Ok but what if they did that too? Well then the first thing the ethiopian government would do if Egypt took control of the dam is diverting the river down south to starve out the egyptians into surrender, for this to not happen Egypt would need to conquer the entirety of Beninshangul Gumuz and Amhara (200,000km^2 and over 20M people) and that's without taking into account the mountainous geography there.

    See what I'm getting at? It's not a coincidence or a stroke of luck that Ethiopia was never colonized by the europeans, that place is literally a geographical fortress.

    Isn鈥檛 the Sudan Ethiopia border conflict still ongoing?

  • krishna bound

    Isn鈥檛 the Sudan Ethiopia border conflict still ongoing?

    Yeah there's spats here and there but it's highly unlikely that a full invasion ever occurs.

  • Nov 26
    1 reply
    pumadon
    路 edited

    Sudan isn't particularly harmed by the GERD though since they get most of their water from other sources. They also would profit from the dam because they'd be able to regulate the flow and prevent floods and they would also be able to get cheap energy from Ethiopia which they desperately need. They're actually in a negotiation with the govt of Ethiopia to buy 1000MW of electricity directly sourced from that dam. Basically they're not actually serious about attacking Ethiopia.

    A military offensive from Egypt is also literally a meme. To get this approved they would need Sudan's permission to drive through their territory but since the GERD has already been filled for the past 2 years, Ethiopia now has a WMD pointed directly at Sudan. Even if they did get the permission though, the sudanese govt doesn't actually control the land bordering the dam so Egypt would need to pacify a rebel group in control of a whole state. But let's imagine they managed to do this, the land there is not actually paved at all or anything so they would need to kill themselves financially to establish a supply line there. Ok but what if they did that too? Well then the first thing the ethiopian government would do if Egypt took control of the dam is diverting the river down south to starve out the egyptians into surrender, for this to not happen Egypt would need to conquer the entirety of Beninshangul Gumuz and Amhara (200,000km^2 and over 20M people) and that's without taking into account the mountainous geography there.

    See what I'm getting at? It's not a coincidence or a stroke of luck that Ethiopia was never colonized by the europeans, that place is literally a geographical fortress.

    fwiw I wasn鈥檛 saying Egypt was going to legit invade Ethiopia, my point was the tensions are serious there and usual suspects see it as an opportunity for geopolitical realpolitik

  • Nov 26
    2 replies
    krishna bound

    fwiw I wasn鈥檛 saying Egypt was going to legit invade Ethiopia, my point was the tensions are serious there and usual suspects see it as an opportunity for geopolitical realpolitik

    Yeah personally I don't think the west views the tension between those countries as an opportunity but more as a HUGE threat to their national security (really Europe's security more than anything).

    Here's the thing: the Nile in Ethiopia has an hydroelectric potential of 60,000MW, this huge dam that's posing an existential threat to Egypt has a max production capacity 6500MW. So that means that Ethiopia can and will put about 10 of these big boys or 100 small ones all across that damn river which means it's game over for Egypt as a country. Egypt literally cannot survive if Ethiopia gets rich and gives electricity to its people, they absolutely need it to remain undeveloped to have a chance at survival.

    A crumbling Egypt means tens of millions of refugees headed straight to Europe and those racists there are about 15 brown refugees away from turning into literal 1930s facists, for liberal democracy to persist in Europe these dams absolutely can't be built. Then you have the Suez canal on which the europeans depend on like crazy. It's as much of a zero sum game situation as you can possibly have.

  • Nov 26
    1 reply
    pumadon

    Yeah personally I don't think the west views the tension between those countries as an opportunity but more as a HUGE threat to their national security (really Europe's security more than anything).

    Here's the thing: the Nile in Ethiopia has an hydroelectric potential of 60,000MW, this huge dam that's posing an existential threat to Egypt has a max production capacity 6500MW. So that means that Ethiopia can and will put about 10 of these big boys or 100 small ones all across that damn river which means it's game over for Egypt as a country. Egypt literally cannot survive if Ethiopia gets rich and gives electricity to its people, they absolutely need it to remain undeveloped to have a chance at survival.

    A crumbling Egypt means tens of millions of refugees headed straight to Europe and those racists there are about 15 brown refugees away from turning into literal 1930s facists, for liberal democracy to persist in Europe these dams absolutely can't be built. Then you have the Suez canal on which the europeans depend on like crazy. It's as much of a zero sum game situation as you can possibly have.

    Yeah that鈥檚 all fair enough of a take on it for sure. Personally though I think western media has been trying to exploit tensions in the region because like monthly for the past year there鈥檒l be big articles trying to claim a war is about to start or similar.

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