Scratchin Mamba

2y

He'll defend any form of imperialism, even if by his own admission he doesn't know s*** about the situation lol

Scratchin Mamba

2y

He'll defend any form of imperialism, even if by his own admission he doesn't know s*** about the situation lol

krishna bound

2y

i don't think he was defending it, it read more like he was trying to write a synopsis of what the context was from what he knew about it

Scratchin Mamba

2y

Well he got the synopsis completely wrong then

krishna bound

2y

well he did preface it with "i don't know much" to be fair so i think he was looking to be corrected

Scratchin Mamba

2y

Good.. f*** all of em

Frankito Reynolds

2y

Setting up two Oligarchic governments in one year! Could be a personal best for a US president.

red eagle

2y

Bro you're a weirdo and don't know much about the situation there lol just keep talking about Iran and leave this topic alone

Frankito Reynolds

2y

You support USA doing this?
You are the weirdo....

red eagle

2y

Absolutely not lol

The TPLF is without a doubt the most psychopathic and genocidal group in Africa and that's saying a lot

space0cadet

2y

what dam

red eagle

2y

Egypt gets 95% of its water from the Nile river which starts in Ethiopia, their economy is as dependent on it as a human is dependent on air. Iirc a 1% drop in the water level there would kill hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Ethiopia built a huge dam on the river in Ethiopia a decade ago and now is in the process of filling it up in a 7 year long process as agreed with egyptian govt. The problem though is that there's no binding agreement between the 2 countries on what would happen in case of a drought and without an agreement the ethiopian government would be pretty much able to retain water for its own starving citizens which would destroy Egypt (and I mean this in the most literal sense, like this would turn Egypt into a failed state overnight).

It's basically a zero sum game between the 2 countries now with existential consequences and the west really doesn't want Egypt to lose because it would cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever in Europe and the Suez canal might be at risk. They also don't want Ethiopia to break apart because this would also cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever so the goal now is to put the TPLF in charge and keep the country unified, which is kinda impossible if you know anything about Ethiopia current internal politics.

red eagle

2y

Egypt gets 95% of its water from the Nile river which starts in Ethiopia, their economy is as dependent on it as a human is dependent on air. Iirc a 1% drop in the water level there would kill hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Ethiopia built a huge dam on the river in Ethiopia a decade ago and now is in the process of filling it up in a 7 year long process as agreed with egyptian govt. The problem though is that there's no binding agreement between the 2 countries on what would happen in case of a drought and without an agreement the ethiopian government would be pretty much able to retain water for its own starving citizens which would destroy Egypt (and I mean this in the most literal sense, like this would turn Egypt into a failed state overnight).

It's basically a zero sum game between the 2 countries now with existential consequences and the west really doesn't want Egypt to lose because it would cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever in Europe and the Suez canal might be at risk. They also don't want Ethiopia to break apart because this would also cause the single greatest migrant crisis ever so the goal now is to put the TPLF in charge and keep the country unified, which is kinda impossible if you know anything about Ethiopia current internal politics.

krishna bound

2y

Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

krishna bound

2y

Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

krishna bound

2y

Should probably add Sudan & Egypt literally did joint drills and there have been crazy tensions with many players esp. in the west hoping or assuming that they would go to war with Ethiopia in a worst case scenario. Sudan is in a similar space to Egypt and the tensions are more complex because of the history of tension of Sudan & Ethiopia anyway.
Also separate note but crazy how Egypt & Sudan went from Nasser & Arab League states (respectively) to being huge interest zones for the west. Sad tbh

red eagle

2y

· edited

Sudan isn't particularly harmed by the GERD though since they get most of their water from other sources. They also would profit from the dam because they'd be able to regulate the flow and prevent floods and they would also be able to get cheap energy from Ethiopia which they desperately need. They're actually in a negotiation with the govt of Ethiopia to buy 1000MW of electricity directly sourced from that dam. Basically they're not actually serious about attacking Ethiopia.

A military offensive from Egypt is also literally a meme. To get this approved they would need Sudan's permission to drive through their territory but since the GERD has already been filled for the past 2 years, Ethiopia now has a WMD pointed directly at Sudan. Even if they did get the permission though, the sudanese govt doesn't actually control the land bordering the dam so Egypt would need to pacify a rebel group in control of a whole state. But let's imagine they managed to do this, the land there is not actually paved at all or anything so they would need to kill themselves financially to establish a supply line there. Ok but what if they did that too? Well then the first thing the ethiopian government would do if Egypt took control of the dam is diverting the river down south to starve out the egyptians into surrender, for this to not happen Egypt would need to conquer the entirety of Beninshangul Gumuz and Amhara (200,000km^2 and over 20M people) and that's without taking into account the mountainous geography there.

See what I'm getting at? It's not a coincidence or a stroke of luck that Ethiopia was never colonized by the europeans, that place is literally a geographical fortress.

krishna bound

2y

Isn’t the Sudan Ethiopia border conflict still ongoing?

red eagle

2y

· edited

Sudan isn't particularly harmed by the GERD though since they get most of their water from other sources. They also would profit from the dam because they'd be able to regulate the flow and prevent floods and they would also be able to get cheap energy from Ethiopia which they desperately need. They're actually in a negotiation with the govt of Ethiopia to buy 1000MW of electricity directly sourced from that dam. Basically they're not actually serious about attacking Ethiopia.

A military offensive from Egypt is also literally a meme. To get this approved they would need Sudan's permission to drive through their territory but since the GERD has already been filled for the past 2 years, Ethiopia now has a WMD pointed directly at Sudan. Even if they did get the permission though, the sudanese govt doesn't actually control the land bordering the dam so Egypt would need to pacify a rebel group in control of a whole state. But let's imagine they managed to do this, the land there is not actually paved at all or anything so they would need to kill themselves financially to establish a supply line there. Ok but what if they did that too? Well then the first thing the ethiopian government would do if Egypt took control of the dam is diverting the river down south to starve out the egyptians into surrender, for this to not happen Egypt would need to conquer the entirety of Beninshangul Gumuz and Amhara (200,000km^2 and over 20M people) and that's without taking into account the mountainous geography there.

See what I'm getting at? It's not a coincidence or a stroke of luck that Ethiopia was never colonized by the europeans, that place is literally a geographical fortress.

krishna bound

2y

fwiw I wasn’t saying Egypt was going to legit invade Ethiopia, my point was the tensions are serious there and usual suspects see it as an opportunity for geopolitical realpolitik

red eagle

2y

Yeah personally I don't think the west views the tension between those countries as an opportunity but more as a HUGE threat to their national security (really Europe's security more than anything).

Here's the thing: the Nile in Ethiopia has an hydroelectric potential of 60,000MW, this huge dam that's posing an existential threat to Egypt has a max production capacity 6500MW. So that means that Ethiopia can and will put about 10 of these big boys or 100 small ones all across that damn river which means it's game over for Egypt as a country. Egypt literally cannot survive if Ethiopia gets rich and gives electricity to its people, they absolutely need it to remain undeveloped to have a chance at survival.

A crumbling Egypt means tens of millions of refugees headed straight to Europe and those racists there are about 15 brown refugees away from turning into literal 1930s facists, for liberal democracy to persist in Europe these dams absolutely can't be built. Then you have the Suez canal on which the europeans depend on like crazy. It's as much of a zero sum game situation as you can possibly have.